US President George W. Bush on Wednesday responded to his war critics with an eloquent speech and a 35-page policy paper titled "Our National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," which is seen by many as containing no new points or guarantee for that warn-torn country.

In the speech delivered at the US Naval Academy in Maryland, Bush once again vowed to "stay the course" and said the US troops won't leave Iraq without what he called a "complete victory."

On the most debated issue of when and how the country could bring its soldiers back home from Iraq, the president only said US military and civilian presence will change as "conditions improve" in Iraq.

The "victory strategy" paper released by the White House earlier in the day seemed to have no idea of a very soon triumph either. "No war has ever been won on a timetable," it declared.

Critics say the "victory strategy" is in fact a repacking of Bush's standpoints on Iraq rather than a new formula to solve the dilemma.

They see it as being aimed at offsetting increasing calls for US pullout from Iraq. With lots of problems remaining unsolved, the "victory strategy" is no guarantee for an ultimate victory on the ground, the critics say.

Mounting pressures

Before leading the country into the war, Bush presented a rosy picture to Americans for a new Iraq where democracy would flourish and terrorism would have no place. The logic is: the United States would be safer.

However, two and a half years have passed since the Saddam regime was toppled with insurgency still rampant and price going high.

More than 2,100 US soldiers have been killed in Iraq and another 17,000 wounded. The war expenditure has hit 250 billion US dollars.

The stern fact is generating pressure on Bush's war policy. According to the latest opinion polls, Americans are becoming impatient with the war and the president's support base is quickly eroding as a result.

A mid-November CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found the president's overall approval rating hit the lowest point of 37 percent. It also showed that for the first time, less than half -- 48 percent -- of those surveyed said they approved of how the president was handling the war on terror.

It could be a hard blow considering three years ago, when Bush had an 87 percent overall approval mark.

The opinion polls, moreover, demonstrated 60 percent of the respondents see the Iraq war as not worth fighting and 52 percent are in favor of either an immediate withdrawal or a pullback within a year.

Many US lawmakers, too, have turned more critical on the issue, asking the Bush administration to clarify its plans for Iraq, if it has any.

The US Senate voted 79-19 on Nov. 15 to urge the administration to explain publicly its strategy for success in Iraq and to provide quarterly reports on the US policy and military operations.

Democratic Rep. John Murtha caused a stir in the Congress two weeks ago, when he called for the prompt withdrawal of all US troops in Iraq.

"The United States can not accomplish anything further in Iraq militarily," he told lawmakers.

Republican senators John Warner and Richard Lugar, who are respectively chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relation Committee, urged Bush to explain his Iraq policy more clearly to the public, though they don't support withdrawal.

To make matters more embarrassing, the Bush administration is also facing challenges from representatives of major Iraqi ethnic and religious groups, who met recently in Cairo calling for a US withdrawal and even endorsing their countrymen's "legitimate right of resistance" to foreign occupation.

Iraqi officials are reported already discussing a possible two-year withdrawal period in private.

The New York Times wonders what Bush may respond if the new Iraqi government formed after the Dec. 15 election formally requests a withdrawal.

The US military can't bear the current strains indefinitely caused by nonstop operations in Iraq, some analysts say.

"I think the administration will yield to the reality of an army that is apparently beginning to buckle under the strain of these long-term deployments," said Andrew Krepinevich, a military analyst in Washington.

Signs of change

Despite the official denial of any pullout plans, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said last week that the training of Iraqi soldiers had advanced so far that the current number of US troops in the country probably would not be needed much longer.

On Monday, the Pentagon also acknowledged the "growing consensus" for reducing the US troop level in Iraq.

As the US military continues to hand over security responsibilities to Iraqi security forces, it will be possible to further reduce beyond the baseline of 138,000 US soldiers, said the Pentagon's chief spokesman Lawrence DiRita.

In his own speech made Wednesday, Bush said over 120 Iraqi army and police combat battalions are ready to fight on their own, while 80 other Iraqi battalions are fighting side by side with coalition forces.

The figures are in sharp contrast with those given by George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq. Gasey revealed in September that only one Iraqi battalion was able to operate completely independent of US forces.

The Los Angeles Times recently said that the administration is probably using its acknowledgement of the capabilities of Iraqi troops to lay the groundwork for a possible drawdown or withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

Hinges of policy

Any possible change in Bush's Iraq policy largely hinges on two political events, according to New York Times reporter David Sanger.

One is the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq on Dec. 15 and the other is the US congressional elections next year.

Given many uncertainties surrounding the two events, the Bush administration is unwilling to make any major decisions right now.

The Iraqi elections are seen as a test for Bush's policy in the troubled Arab country, depending on what will come out of it: more stability or more violence.

At home, the US voters' opinions on the war will reshape some policy thoughts of the administration in the elections next year.

But observers believe whatever the adjustment is, Iraq will be a long-term dilemma for the United States.

In a recent report, Andrew Terrill and Conrad Crane, two military researchers at the US Army War College, summarized the US position in Iraq as "we can't stay, we can't leave, we can't fail."

Some observers have predicted an eventual US pullout is something inevitable and that there will be a very huge price to pay.

(Xinhua News Agency December 1, 2005)