The 2012 hurricane season is just beginning in the United States. The forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms and 7 hurricanes.

On May 30, 2012, COAPS (Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies) scientists released their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

These numbers are based on 51 individual seasonal forecasts conducted since May 25, 2012 using sea surface temperatures predicted by NOAA.

The Florida State University (FSU) is the only university in the United States issuing a seasonal hurricane forecast using a global numerical atmospheric model. The model uses the high performance computers at FSU to make predictions of the atmosphere six months into the future. Based on these atmospheric predictions, tropical activity is objectively determined and forecasts are issued around June 1st.

The COAPS forecast is gaining recognition for its accuracy only three years after its launch. The 2009 forecast predicted 8 named storms and 4 hurricanes, and there ended up being 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes that year. The 2010 forecast predicted 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The 2011 forecast predicted an average of 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and 7 hurricanes.

Historical data was used since 1982 shows that the model has a mean absolute error of 1.9 hurricanes and 2.3 named storms.

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