Southeast Asia will be hit particularly hard by climate change, causing the region's agriculture-dependent economies to contract by as much as 6.7 percent annually by the end of the century, according to a study released Monday.

The Asian Development Bank study identified four countries as especially vulnerable: Indonesia and the Philippines with large coastal populations facing rising sea levels, and Thailand and Vietnam where rice yields could drop 50 percent due to water shortages.

"You have to think about developing countries' capacity," ADB Senior Economist Tae Yong Jung said. "They are not really well prepared. Their capacity to handle extreme events is much lower than the developed world."

He said globally climate change would cost the equivalent of 2.6 percent of gross domestic product each year by the end of the century.

If nothing is done to combat global warming, the report said that by 2100 the four Asian countries would see temperatures rise an average of 8.6 Fahrenheit (4.8 Celsius) from the 1990 level. They would also likely suffer drops in rainfall leading to worsening droughts and more forest fires, more destructive tropical storms and flooding from rising seas that could displace millions of people and lead to the destruction of 965 square miles (2,500 square kilometers) of mangroves.

The economic cost, according to the report, would be 6.7 percent of gross domestic product by 2100.

The key for Southeast Asia would be protecting its remaining tropical forests which have fallen victim in recent years to widespread illegal logging and the expansion of palm oil plantations, the report found. Deforestation represents as much as 75 percent of the four country's emissions.

(China Daily via agencies April 28, 2009)