By Dang Jianjun

China is unlikely to hold joint military exercises with the United States and Australia in the near future. But as political relations develop, exercises may become possible in the future.

Australian media reported September 3 that US Pacific commander Timothy Keating and Australian Defense Force chief Angus Houston had agreed to invite the Chinese military to take part in joint exercises. The three nations have never held joint military exercises before, so the news attracted widespread attention.

The US-Australian invitation was not presented through formal channels. It must be asked why, since such channels have existed for some time, they chose to leak the invitation to the press rather than making a formal approach. For its part, the Chinese Ministry of Defense said that, while it would pay attention to the media reports, it has so far received no formal invitation.

Even if the US-Australian "invitation" turns out to be just media hype, a formal invitation may follow. So China must decide whether to join the military exercises, and what kind of exercises should be held.

The Chinese navy has held joint marine search-and-rescue exercises with many countries, including the US and Australia. In July 2008 Timothy Keating said he had agreed to arrange joint humanitarian assistance exercises with China in the near future. But the decision of the Bush administration to sell arms worth US$6.4 billion to Taiwan in October 2008 led to the breaking off of Sino-US military ties. The two countries gradually resumed military ties only after President Obama took office.

This was not the first time military ties between the two countries were suspended. In fact, since 1979, Sino-US military ties have been suspended five times. Political relations between the two countries directly affect the development of military ties and, vice versa, military exchanges are a barometer of their political relations.

So joint military exercises with the US and Australia depend on the development of political relations. China and the US have resumed military exchanges, but remain at odds on the Taiwan issue and other issues that affect China's core interests. In relation to China's military build-up, the US continues to spread the "China threat theory". This indicates that the US still mistrusts China, and this will definitely affect military exchanges between the two countries.

This May, Australia issued a defense white paper claiming that China's military modernization was causing security concerns among its neighbors. In July, the Australian government granted a visa to Xinjiang separatist Rebiya Kadeer despite China's strong opposition. Given this background, this is not the time to discuss joint military exercises.

But things will change. As political relations develop, exercises may become possible in the future.

China is committed to strengthening military exchanges and increasing mutual understanding with other countries. It has conducted joint military drills with Kyrgyzstan, Russia, India and others, and there remains huge potential to further enhance military ties with these countries.

(China.org.cn translated by Zhang Ming'ai, September 8, 2009)