Who was right and who was wrong on China's economy
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Turning from private to official international bodies, in January 2009 the IMF predicted 6.7 percent growth in China in 2009. In April 2009, by which time China's economy was already accelerating, the IMF revised its forecast downwards to 6.5 percent. In March, the World Bank also lowered its prediction to 6.5 percent. In March 2009 the OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said the organization might revise its forecast for China's GDP growth to as low as 6.0 percent.
In addition to these serious, if wrong, views, the habitual catastrophists also put forward their perspectives – and strangely received significant coverage in the international media despite the fact that, as always, their forecasts were entirely disproved. Among them were Gordon Chang, who continued to stand by the thesis of his 2002 book The Coming Collapse of China, which declared: "A half-decade ago the leaders of the People's Republic had real choices. Today they do not. They have no exit. They have run out of time." This prediction was made as China was about to experience seven years of the most rapid economic growth in world history.
Deng Xiaoping liked to quote the dictum "seek truth from facts." This does not apply only in China. If an analysis yields a wrong prediction, it means it is flawed. Analyses that have previously failed to foresee the strength of China's economy cannot, therefore, be considered reliable for present and future projections.
Given the clear outcome of China's stimulus package and the country's economic performance in 2009, when analysts appear in the media this year outlining future prospects for the Chinese economy, the first question they should be asked is "what was your prognosis for China's economic performance in the crisis year 2009?"
"Seek truth from facts" remains a good guide in any country.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7080931.htm
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