On May 18, 2010, new draft sanctions on Iran were agreed by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, just one day after Iran signed a nuclear fuel swap agreement with Brazil and Turkey. Any sanctions resolution passed in this context will lack legitimacy and further complicate the task of finding a solution to the Iran nuclear issue.
It was an astute move by the Iranian side to demonstrate evidence of compliance on the eve of the new round of sanctions.
Last October the IAEA proposed that Iran exchange 1200 kilos of its existing nuclear fuel for purer, enriched uranium to be used for medical purposes. The Americans said the move would delay Iran's development of a nuclear bomb. Although Iran accepted in principle, its counter-proposal fell short of US demands and triggered the current push for new sanctions.
But the agreement Iran signed with Brazil and Turkey means that, within a month, it will have handed over the 1200 kilos of uranium demanded by the IAEA. Iran's swift change of attitude, after months of harsh rhetoric, undermines the American drive for new sanctions.
But despite the awkward position it finds itself in, the United States shows no signs of giving up its half-baked proposals. This is because the sanctions have become an issue in US domestic politics. The mid-term elections and a series of difficult domestic issues like health care and financial reform have left Barack Obama with little choice but to take a hard line approach on Iran in order to maintain his approval ratings.
It is highly likely that a fresh sanctions resolution will be passed by the UN Security Council. Though the legitimacy of the resolution will be undermined by Iran's compliance with the IAEA proposals, and its contents may be watered down, its implications will still be serious and negative.
Iranians will be able to argue that compliance is not rewarded, and that Iran will never be accepted by the world no matter what it does. This will boost Iranian distrust of the international community, especially the US, discourage cooperation, and encourage intransigence. The international community has many reasons to be uneasy about the new sanctions resolution.
Dr. Jin Liangxiang is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7075400.htm
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