Egypt's fortnight of uncertainty
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Some 900 British companies did three billion British pounds (sterling) worth of trade in 2009. In addition, 31% of Egypt's trade is with the EU, with 2009 exports to the EU accounting for US $12.6 billion.
Western visitors flock to Egypt in huge numbers, with 12.5 million arriving in 2009, bringing US $10.8 billion to the national economy.
Also a key Western military ally in the region, Egypt hosts joint military exercises with the US every two years, providing access to the Suez Canal and offering other important military support. In return, Cairo is rewarded by Washington with US $1.5 billion in aid annually.
Events took unexpected turns that set off alarm bells in London, Washington and Jerusalem.
As sure as actions breed reactions, Mubarak's supporters also took to the streets, resulting in violent clashes that left eight dead and thousands injured. Fear replaced fervor as mob violence, lawlessness and anarchy characterized the first week of protests, leading to justifiable fears of uncertainty.
The fortnight of chaos also had serious economic effects at home and abroad.
Egypt's stock exchange remained closed; banks ran out of money; and the country lost an estimated average of US $300 million per day for the past two weeks. Stock markets were affected across the world and oil prices topped US $100 per barrel for the first time in over two years.
So, where is it all heading?
Egypt is already well set to pay dearly.
The US, UK and other nations issued travel advisories against the popular tourism destination that resulted in over 160,000 visitors departing, while several countries evacuated nationals by the thousands.
The vital tourism industry – representing 12% of GDP and employing 12% of the national work force – will suffer for at least one year, according to conservative industry estimates.
International investors are also generally expected to reassess risks of doing business in Egypt until the political uncertainty is removed – which may not be until after the September 2011 national elections that Mubarak and his son will not be participating in.
Recent events have ensured that Washington and London take a pause and prepare to revisit their game plans for the Middle East.
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