Iranian rallies tell a different story
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The recent anti-government movements that started in Tunisia have spread not only across the Arab world but also to Iran – a non-Arab country. The U.S. and the West hope that this latest round of Iranian demonstrations will lead to the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue by overthrowing the Islamic regime. One of the leading US experts on Iran, Ray Takeyh, maintains that the only policy option available to the United States to modify the behavior of the Islamic Republic is support for the Green Movement.
However, given the difference between the Arab street and the Iranian street, the reality will probably fall short of the West's expectations, just as Western predictions about the post 2009 election protest were wide of the mark.
Though geographically distant from the epicenter of the new round of anti-government protests, Iran is not immune to the impact of this grass-roots regional political movement. This is partly due to the social, political and cultural links among Muslim countries, and partly due to the efforts of the conservative leaders of the Islamic republic to build a kind of moral connection between the current Middle East movements and Iran's 1979 revolution.
While the conservatives in power expect the Egyptian movement to result in an Islamic regime that will join the regional anti-American front led by Iran, the reformists are aiming to legitimize the Green Movement and give it new momentum after a period of silence. Recent days have seen a reinvigorated Green Movement back on Tehran's streets. In many ways, Iran's anti-government demonstrations resemble these on Cairo's streets. For instance, the protesters in both countries are mainly drawn from the restive younger generation and the overburdened middle class, and they clashed fiercely with police.
But despite the similarities, the differences are enormous and fundamental. The Egyptians were demanding not only the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, but also a wholesale revision of the constitution. This did not happen in Iran. Far from demanding the overthrow of the system, the Iranian street put political and social freedom and economic opportunity at the top of their agenda. They challenged neither the system nor the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader. To put it another way, the Iranian demonstrations were a continuation of the post-2009 election protest, which was essentially a movement launched by an opposition political faction against the faction in office.
The rallying of reformist supporters in outlawed protests has demonstrated in a high-profile manner that the opposition faction is still in business, and that their ideas still have public appeal. But apart from that, it is doubtful the reformists will achieve much. The Green Movement has not been able to recreate the level of protest they achieved in the immediate aftermath of the 2009 election, partly because of the passage of time, and partly due to repression by the regime. And the reformists do not command the same legitimacy as the Egyptian protesters. Ahmadinejad, though unpopular with many, still has a strong constituency, and his policies are supported by a huge section of the population.
There is also no chance that Iran will reverse its policy regarding the nuclear issue. The reformists are relatively moderate on foreign policy issues, but on the nuclear issue they differ from the government on means rather than ends. In the current Iran-US conflict, neither the reformists nor the conservatives would be able to deliver the concessions the U.S. wants without undermining their own legitimacy.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn For more information please visit http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7075400.htm
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