Read the defense budget right
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As expected, China's defense budget has again increased. This time, it has reached RMB 601.1 billion, 13.0 percent more than a year ago, or 12.7 percent more than it actually spent in 2010, as there was an additional spend of RMB 1.3 billion last year over and above the original budget of RMB 532.1 billion.
As the Chinese currency is getting stronger, this year's defense budget, measured in US dollars at $91.4 billion, has increased by 17.2 percent over last year's figure of some $78 billion.
Rapid growth of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s budget is a trend that is almost certain to continue for the next decade, for a variety of reasons.
First, of all the major powers, China faces most serious challenges to its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. China borders 20 countries, and has territorial disputes with nearly half of them, in particular with major neighbors such as India and Japan, as well as with a number of ASEAN members over territorial waters.
And China is the only power in the world that has not attained national integration, as the mainland and Taiwan are still separate. Obviously the inability of the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to achieve reconciliation mainly accounts for this unfortunate reality. But the fact that some external forces intervene politically and militarily into the Taiwan issue constitutes a significant factor complicating the situation. The majority of Chinese will never be satisfied with the status quo, and will continue to build the capacity to effect a change.
In this regard, America has posed a serious challenge to China's core national interests. The U.S. has repeatedly voiced its support for a peaceful settlement of relations across the Strait, but has also threatened, under the terms of its Taiwan Relations Act, possible military intervention, if a non-peaceful method of settlement is approached.
It is the Chinese who are most attached to reunification through peaceful means, but they cannot allow a settlement that might include peaceful disintegration to be dictated by foreigners. Though most Chinese would hate to see the use of force among them, they have to leave all options open, especially since this is imposed by some who would push the envelope of a de jure independence of Taiwan too far. China does not want to dictate to others how to handle their sovereign affairs, but will also not subject its freedom of action to the will of others. In this context, the increasing military budget represents an effort to build a more adequate defense of its sovereignty and integrity. It will continue as long as such legitimate objectives are not met.
Second, China increasingly cares about more than the Taiwan issue. Though Chinese armed forces will continue to enhance their deterrence against Taiwan independence, they are faced with other missions to protect China's expanding legitimate national interests beyond Taiwan.
China has employed an open-door policy and going-out strategy over the last three decades. This has empowered the country to build the second largest economy in the world and made it the biggest international trading country worldwide. While China has been a major recipient of foreign investment, second only to the U.S., it has also become a major investor overseas.
All these factors strengthen China while rendering it more vulnerable. The 50 million Chinese traveling abroad last year could become increasingly vulnerable to local fragilities and sensitivities. The scale of Chinese oversea investments last year surpassed the amount loaned by the World Bank over the same period, and there is no guarantee that these investments are safe and secure.
The ongoing spread of instability in Middle East and North Africa has highlighted these issues. When Libya was torn apart and its government put under siege, tens of thousands of Chinese were trapped. The Chinese government had to evacuate them in a rapid and orderly manner. It achieved this historical task efficiently, with the navy and air force providing some logistical support.
This was China's first massive overseas evacuation, but it almost certainly won't be its last. And almost certainly it will fall to the PLA to carry out such missions when contingencies arise. The PLA must be in a position to conduct such overseas tasks, subject to international law and the host country's welcome and cooperation. And to build the necessary logistical capacity will require an ever larger defense budget.
Finally, needless to say, given rising inflation in China, the 13 percent growth in the defense budget will not leave much room for a net increase. The PLA is 2.3 million strong, and its soldiers and junior officers will see a 40 percent increase in their pay-checks this year, leaving a much smaller amount left over for arms research and development and acquisition. China still has a long way to go to make a job in uniform competitive in terms of economic compensation.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn For more information please visit http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7082361.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn
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