For the first time in recent decades, the Chinese and US presidential elections will roughly coincide with each other. There are differences between the two, however. As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stages, the candidates' campaigns have become louder and more combative, whereas China's ruling party is sticking to electoral secrecy as it remains tight-lipped regarding the actual election date.

Such an adherence to secrecy ensures that the gaze of the international community remains closely focused on China in general and Chinese politics in particular. In the past few months, while the Bo Xilai scandal was getting wall-to-wall media coverage and was the hottest topic of conversation on Sina Weibo, China's version of Twitter, Chinese people's demands and expectations were also appearing frequently on editorial pages and online via blogs and website comments. Against a backdrop of numerous uncertainties, two questions in particular have been frequently asked: What kind of changes will take place after the Chinese election, and what are the implications for China-US relations? By discussing the implications of the upcoming Chinese election for three different aspects of Chinese social and political life: Chinese political culture, Chinese civil society and Chinese foreign policy.

Observers have noted that the scale and the scope of the coming changes are likely to be widest in China's three most important leadership bodies: The Party, the government and the military. It's believed that the coming changes will see roughly two-thirds of the existing membership replaced by newcomers. These newcomers will largely account for many of the leading positions in China's political, economic and ideological administrations, and provincial, foreign policy, public security and military operations after the upcoming 18th Party Congress and the 12th National People's Congress in the Spring of 2013. In general, this new generation of leaders is more diverse in their educational, professional and economic backgrounds. Most are better educated than their predecessors and some even have diplomas from foreign institutions. Some of them have been chosen through competition, some through recommendations and some have gradually risen through the ranks. They are also more cosmopolitan in their worldviews and policy choices than their predecessors. Their backgrounds are more complex, representing different interest groups within China.

With such high levels of both education and professional knowledge, these newcomers are more confident in expressing their opinions and have a greater awareness of people's rights as well as closer and wider connections with civil society. They are more amenable to new ways of thinking and new values.

I believe that these new factors will bring changes to China's political life.

The second aspect concerns the role of civil society in China's political life. Since opening up, dramatic changes have taken place in Chinese society. From the self-employed opening private business to athletes "flying alone" , individuals in China are gradually breaking away from collective and state mechanisms and gaining greater freedom and more rights. Before opening up, individuals had to subordinate to collective and national control.

In recent times, people's economic independence has been slowly transformed into social rights, a phenomenon which has weakened the authority of central government. Using the Internet as a tool, Chinese youth who were born in the 1980s and 1990s are striving for more civil rights and becoming more involved in political life. Although the current system is not set up to meet their demands, their pronouncements have seized the attention of both the mass media and policy makers at the highest level.

The third aspect concerns foreign policy. As its economy grows, China's maxim of "keeping a low profile" looks increasingly redundant and even absurd to many Chinese people. Domestically, the government is faced with public complaints that China has been too timid amid increasing public calls for a fundamental overhaul of foreign policy. But the government will have to deal with more foreign pressures to remain modest and prudent. Over the past couple of years, there has been a genuine debate about the direction of Chinese foreign policy, both among scholars and officials. Obviously, China's growing status and new international reality require a more modern and sophisticated foreign policy. However, in the face of pressing domestic issues, the new team may struggle to balance foreign policy and strategy demands. Perhaps over time the new guard will create a new foreign policy outlook.

The past two years have seen relations between China and the US have become increasingly competitive and mistrustful. Many observers have alleged that China became more assertive with regards to foreign affairs after 2008. But what the US editorialists call aggressive Chinese behavior is viewed by the Chinese as defensive and necessary behaviour. However, on close observation, it appears that the competition and mistrust between the two nations play out more in terms of sentiment than action.

Looking at the increasingly heated presidential election campaign in the United States, we can see that China is a key vote-winning card. Publicly, Beijing and Washington are both influenced by free, but not necessarily responsible media. Privately both governments understand they need to show a tough public. Whatever attitudes are expressed on both sides, we should be mindful of increasing levels of cooperation between the two countries in various fields.

While many conflicting interests and ideas exist between China and the United States, China recognizes that it shares important interests and ideas with the US. Leaders in both countries must contend with public pressures to ensure that bilateral relations are stable and mutually beneficial. Comparing the mounting pressures on economic recovery at home, the current international environment seems benign, allowing Beijing and Washington, and other countries, to find ways to solve global issues in order to achieve global security through cooperation.

The author is now a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

(This article is a presentation by Wei Hongxia at a panel discussion of the Center for National Policy to examine the potential for change in the relationship between the U.S., China and Taiwan in an election year.)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn

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