Obama (L) VS. Romney [Photo/agencies]

Over the past two weeks, the Democratic and Republican Parties have named Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as their presidential candidates, respectively. From this week onwards, the American presidential race will officially go into higher gear.

Over the next 50-odd days, the main question on everybody's lips will be: What will make the right candidate stand out? In order to gain some more in-depth perspective on this, we need to consider three factors.

Live political debates. Obama and Romney will go head-to-head during three debates scheduled to take place on October 3, 16 and 22. They will use their debating skills to clarify their political ideas. These televised debates will have a significant influence on voters. The content, form, rhetoric, emotions as well as the debaters' presented images will tip the scales one way or another. Currently, Obama seems to have the bigger advantage in this respect. Not only did he build up a vast debating experience during his last election campaign, but he also sharpened his skills to address the public throughout his first term in office. As for Romney, the voter tends to regard him as relatively rigid in image and rhetoric. But the public, though more familiar with Obama, do have high expectations of Romney. If the Republican Party can seize this opportunity, they are quite likely to win over some wavering voters.

Then enters the economic issue. America's economic growth will make a difference to voters. Especially crucial will be the job market reports of October and November. The recently issued August report showed that the economy would not see a significant turnaround during the presidential election race. If the reports to be issued on October 5 and November 2 show that economic growth is still weak, Romney will have some evidence to use against the Obama Administration, attacking its incompetence, and may perhaps win over some reluctant voters. If the economy shows a positive growth however, no matter how little it might be, Romney will face a less promising situation.

Last but not least: Campaign funding. American presidential elections are extremely costly. The amount of money that a candidate raises has a direct influence on his or her publicity campaign and eventually does affect the outcome of the race. Most of the raised fundings are used for advertisements. For instance, both Parties' national conventions cost money to be broadcast on TV. Now American TV viewers are bombarded not only with miscellaneous commercials, but also with assorted campaign ads.

According to the latest reports, Obama outdid Romney by US$2.4 million in campaign fundings after previously lagging behind for a consecutive three months. Now the Democratic and Republican Parties have raised US$114 million and US$111.6 million, respectively. It is the first time that Obama has managed to outraise Romney. As fundraising will continue at an intense level in September, it remains hard to predict who will collect more money.

However, judging by the fact that Obama literally gave Romney a run for his money, it seems that the Democratic Party has received a better public response to its national convention than has the Republican Party. The Democratic national convention even managed to give slightly more edge to Obama's approval rate. The latest Gallup poll showed that Obama's current approval rate stands at 49 percent, ahead of Romney's 44 percent.

Although Obama is now in the driver's seat, he does not have any real major advantages left to draw upon. Over the coming period to the Election Day, he will face uncertainty in polls as both candidates' campaigns are now really stepping it up a notch in their race to cross that White House threshold.

The author is now a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/weihongxia.htm

(This post was written in Chinese and translated by Pang Li)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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