Cruising for a bruising [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

The world is aware that China is very annoyed with Japan at the moment. Everyone is watching the situation around the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. We are all aware that the Chinese and Japanese positions are completely irreconcilable. And we all hope that the crisis can somehow be resolved without serious trouble breaking out in East Asia.

Fortunately, we know that both China and Japan are responsible nations who do not wish to plunge the Pacific Rim into war. Both nations have given clear signs that they will not be browbeaten into backing off, but no-one expects military action.

However, both sides are looking at what they might do to influence the situation by non-violent means. In this case, China holds most of the cards. China, so long as she can hold off a potential slowdown and decline, is still the growing economic power, and the major creditor. Also, China maintains permanent membership of the UN Security Council, whatever that is worth these days. Apart from resorting to the test of military conflict, China must feel that it has an advantage in the current dispute. Is "war by other means" the way forward?

Superficially, the Japanese government's action in buying the Diaoyu islands "for the nation" looked like an aggressive and provocative gesture. In fact it was an attempt to defuse the situation. Shintaro Ishihara, the ultra-nationalist politician whom the people of Tokyo elected as their governor, was attempting to buy the islands himself, and would certainly have used his ownership to generate tension between Japan and China. The Japanese government acted to prevent this loose cannon from being set up just off the coast of the Chinese mainland, and to keep control of the situation.

What I, as a Westerner, do not understand is why so many Japanese are determined to cling to memories of times better forgotten. Japanese leaders make regular pilgrimages to the Yasukuni Shrine, dedicated to the memory of the armies who devastated East Asia, knowing that the descendants of their victims will be horrified and angry. There is clearly a significant section of the Japanese electorate who expect them to do this. German leaders don't do that sort of thing; they have dissociated themselves firmly from the Third Reich, and have done so sincerely.

However, the fear of being "pushed into a corner" by China is one factor fuelling the resurgence of Japanese nationalism. The latest news is that Ishihara, a "revisionist historian" and lasting hero to the people of Tokyo, is now planning to form a national political party at the age of 80. This is not constructive. Both sides must take care to limit the potential damage posed by "gesture politics".

It is clear that China is considering non-military tactics to keep the situation moving in her favour. The absence of a Chinese representative at the recent IMF meeting in Tokyo indicated that China continues to regard this issue with the utmost seriousness. There has also been talk of economic sanctions being exerted through pressure on imports and exports, and an aggressive policy of divestment in Japanese bonds could do serious damage to the Japan's economy.

We hope it never comes to that ― the world does not need an economic war of attrition in the Pacific Rim, over which many countries, not only China and Japan, would suffer. Economic sanctions on Japan would make it more, not less, likely that the Japanese leadership would try to bolster its position through irresponsible diplomatic or military adventures. Additionally, a "bond bombing" attack would seriously worry the United States, which has sold considerably more bonds to China than it has to Japan.

Surely neither Japan nor China wants to see developments of this kind. However, refraining from military threats and confining tactics to the sphere of rhetoric and economic policy may not be sufficient to ensure a peaceful outcome. Both sides need to shape a longer-term view of where they wish the region to be in twenty, thirty, fifty years time as well as plan the steps to get there. China has done this in the case of Taiwan, and the temperature around the Straits has dropped considerably. Everyone knows that modern Japan has no plans to revive the criminal imperialism of the 1930s and 40s. So why on earth can't the Japanese say so? Someone in Japan must realize that there will be no room for any vestige of pre-1945 sentiment in their relations with their neighbours.

Never mind the possible natural resources around the Diaoyus ― even islands made of pure platinum wouldn't be worth a prolonged disruption of stability on the Pacific Rim.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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