Inverted pyramid [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

China's working-age population, that is people aged from 15 to 59, registered a rare and worrying decline in 2012, decreasing by 3.45 million to 937 million, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The proportion in the total population shrinking by 0.6 percentage points to 69.2 percent. This is worrying as the NBS predicts the decline will continue to 2030.

This demographic change means China's sustainable economic growth will gradually lose two favorable conditions: the absolute advantage of labor supply and the comparative advantage of cheap labor. Considering most people are retired at the age of 60 in China, the decline in the number of people aged from 15 to 59 will affect the economy and aggravate the country's labor shortage.

Distinguishing between the working-age population, labor force and employed population will be helpful when interpreting the economic impact of a declining working-age population.

The working-age population includes some disabled people who can't work, the labor force covers all that can work, even those under 15 and above 60, and the employed population is people in real production positions contributing to growth.

The essence of the demographic dividend is the accumulation and development of human capital, or the contribution by and value of the population. The demographic dividend can be interpreted in a variety of ways, such as the population growth dividend, the labor force dividend or the female population dividend. However, the window of opportunity opened by a low ratio population burden can't be perceived as a population bonus.

Despite its declining numbers, China's working-age population is still large. The country's population advantage is some 937 million people. It would be a misinterpretation to suggest the decline in the working-age population is passing the Lewis Turning Point, the time when all the surplus rural labor has been transferred and absorbed by the economy.

Rather than focusing on the whole population, China should be more aware of the change in its young population and the restraint the decline in the young population will have on economic growth. While the decline of the working-age population is actually a corollary of the country's low birthrate and therefore could become a lingering trend, what decides the future is the number and quality of young people entering the labor force.

Attention should be paid to the changing structure of the working-age population, the majority of whom are currently the only child of their families. Many of these children were brought up indulgently and thus become self-centered, hardly accept different opinions, advice and criticism. Some of them are afraid of dealing with others, or dislike cooperation, and sometimes they are unrealistically ambitious.

Three aspects of the demographic changes need to be dealt with: the labor shortage related to the decreasing increment of labor supply; the shortage of technicians attributable to the unbalanced structure of the working population, the government needs to pay special attention to the training of skilled personnel; and the tough employment market for university graduates, which indicates that higher education doesn't match the needs of market.

It's now increasingly clear that the family planning policy has not only reduced the working-age population and restrained the pace of sustainable economic growth, it is also partly responsible for young laborers' poor teamwork and production capabilities. The policy has caused great demographic risk and debt, and will lead to worse prospects if the situation remains unchanged.

Maintaining a low birthrate has become China's policy since 2000, yet this measure is still number-based, rather than human-centered, and has not addressed the changing demographic structure since the country entered into a low birthrate period.

According to statistics from the Sixth National Census, the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.5 or even 1.3, and a super-low birthrate trap is emerging. In other words, the problem of overpopulation has been changing into a problem of an unbalanced population structure.

It's worrying that the situation hasn't drawn more attention. Under the existing population policy, the population decline is likely to be exacerbated in the future. It's time for China to seriously think about a moderate and optimized fertility, as the base line for sustainable population development, as well as a countermeasure to possible population risks.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/muguangzong.htm

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