A new government leader's first foreign visit – especially when it concerns a powerful country like China – is always a subject of political discussion. His choice of initial destination will be analyzed minutely by all diplomatic (and journalistic) observers who will ponder what it portends for the new government's foreign policy intentions and priorities. And it needs careful thinking through; in deciding to visit India, for instance, it was obviously necessary to add on Pakistan, who otherwise might have been greatly affronted, as a staunch long-time Chinese ally.

Premier Li Keqiang shares a light moment with some Swiss youths during his visit to the Einstein Museum in Bern, Switzerland, on May 25. [Xinhua photo]

Premier Li's advisers chose Germany and Switzerland for his subsequent visit to Europe, which, in itself, shows that the Premier's interests in this part of the trip are not really political but economic. Europe's major political players are Britain and France, whereas Switzerland is hardly a political entity at all; a world-renowned financial center, it scrupulously avoids participation in international political organizations and nobody has heard of any of its political leaders – the Swiss prefer it so – and they have prospered as a result of this preference. Germany does have a leading political role in Europe, but is most careful not to emphasize its part, conscious of the implications of 20th century history. In the context of the world economy, however, there is no question that both Germany and Switzerland are powerhouses.

The focus of Premier Li's visit shows how greatly the world has changed in 30 years; the issues on the table, now as before, have concerned free trade. In the 1980s and 90s the Western world was trying to break through the protectionist barriers which were erected by China in the days when she was a newly emergent country, developing fast from a very low base. In those days we were all dedicated to convincing China of the universal benefits which come from free trade and we have succeeded only too well. Now it is China which is coming to us flying the banner of free trade and persuading us Europeans to remove protective barriers erected against the flood of low-cost, high-tech products emanating from the newly resurgent China.

The cleverness of the Chinese tactics is demonstrated by the sensitivity shown to the current internal difficulties afflicting the EU. As well as being the EU's strongest economy, Germany is also the nation most firmly committed to the EU project, which makes it the obvious partner to engage on the free trade issue, as Germany will be able to deliver an agreement on imports of photovoltaic energy sources and mobile phone technology if anyone can; of course Germany is Europe's leading producer and exporter of high-tech products, so will be hard to convince, but at least the Chinese can be confident that the Germans will engage seriously with the issue.

The element of Premier Li's program which especially interested me was that, as well as the usual dialogue partners, Chancellor Merkel and her potential challenger Peer Steinbruck, Li will also pay a call on the former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. Schmidt remains a formidable figure, despite the fact that he is now 94 years old. The two political principles for which he remains best known are firm commitments both to the EU project and to friendship with China. Schmidt, although long retired, will be able to give an authoritative endorsement to the assurances Premier Li will have received from the present political leaders.

Before his trip to Germany the Premier visited Switzerland, where he signed a flagship free trade agreement, aiming to set a clear example to the rest of the continent. Much was made of the fact that this was the first free trade agreement signed between China and a European country; in the background was the clear implication that Switzerland was only in a position to take this step because of her non-membership of the EU. Arranging such an agreement with a 27-member confederation is always going to be a good deal more difficult. The agreement was meant to act as a catalyst to encourage the rest of Europe to get its skates on.

There may be a possible further effect, however, and I am not sure whether it was a deliberate element of the tactics or not. In my own country, Britain, there is currently a fierce and embittered debate on the issue of whether membership of the EU is actually beneficial to the individual member states and we are not alone in this. If Premier Li wished to make the point that an independently operating country has more chance of achieving lucrative trade agreements with the world's leading economic players, it can only give encouragement to those who favor "independence" from the EU against their EU-supporting national governments. I am fairly sure that this is not what the Chinese had in mind at all.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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