Power and politics in Ukraine
- By Heiko Khoo
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 27, 2014
A 2009 survey of popular opinion showed that only 30 percent of Ukrainians approve of parliamentary democracy. No wonder, considering that, that in 2011, 60 opposition deputies were "encouraged" to support Yanukovich's government with payments of between US$1-10 million, followed by a further US$25,000 a month. The current rebellion expresses popular despair with everything political and economic. As oligarchs own Ukraine, their political marionettes will continue to divert popular anger on regional as well as anti-Russian lines. Despite these attempts, until recently, the target of popular discontent was not Russia. Indeed, people from both regions believed they had more in common with Russians than with each other.
The protest movement of the last few months emerged out of popular discontent at corruption and the economic and social conditions of the masses. As the movement progressed, the composition of the social forces involved changed. When Kiev became a battleground, state forces fought against nationalists and fascist paramilitary forces. The street power of the right-wing extremists has made them a force to be reckoned with. They toppled Lenin statues to symbolically reinforce their nationalist credentials. However, despite such right-wing provocations in the last few days, no future Ukrainian government can afford to antagonise Russia without provoking a catastrophic economic collapse. Ukraine needs Russian money and the economy is completely dependent on Russian gas.
In the recent protests in the Western Ukraine many waved the flag of the European Union. To them Europe represents a desperate hope that somehow their nation might escape from decline and corruption. German politicians are acutely aware of the potential for descent into civil war that can stem from this heady mixture of unfulfilled national aspirations, economic and social collapse and the consequences of international power politics. But fine words are all that Europe's leaders will offer. The European Union is paralyzed by its own massive economic problems, so there will be no significant funds on offer to Ukraine. The only thing the West can offer to Ukraine is an IMF "assistance" package that will involve severe austerity measures, likened to major surgery without anaesthesia. Although Russia's President Vladimir Putin is clearly angered by Western support for the overthrow of Yanukovich, he knows very well that IMF conditions will drive the people onto the streets against any government that tries to impose them.
The United States, in turn, tried to micromanage political change. This was exposed in a leaked recording of a phone call between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt. Nuland discussed the fate of Ukrainian politicians as if they were pawns in a U.S. game. Of enormous embarrassment was the fact that she used obscenity to express the U.S. contempt and dismissiveness of Europe. However, equally clever U.S. plans failed in 2004, when they supported the so-called "Orange revolution." ,Today, the U.S. can manipulate politics, but they offer no money. So Washington's brazen attempts to guide the Ukrainian political transition are doomed to fail. If the conflict degenerates into a civil war, Putin will not stand idly by and watch Ukraine slip out of Russia's sphere of influence.
As the Ukrainian people assimilate the meaning of recent events, they will ask two central questions. How can Ukraine escape from despair unless the oligarchs are expropriated and the nation's wealth is returned to the people? And how can politics come to represent the people's will? If they can find answers to these questions, there may be hope.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://china.org.cn/opinion/heikokhoo.htm
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