Sizing up the 2014 Brazilian election
- By Jiang Shixue
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 5, 2014
Even the Brazilian loss in the World Football Cup in July had a negative impact on Rousseff. In Brazil - which tends to think of itself as "o país do futebol," or the football country - the humiliating 1-7 loss to Germany caused many people to direct their disappointment and anger towards the government, although Rousseff herself was said to have acknowledged that the loss was even worse than a nightmare.
If no candidate in the presidential election receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a second-round runoff will be held on October 26.
No matter who wins the final victory, the president who governs Brazil (long considered the "country of tomorrow") over the next four years will undoubtedly put the economy at the top of his or her agenda. In Brazil, as elsewhere, economic issues such as more employment, low inflation and stable income are what voters cherish most.
Interestingly, foreign policy is not a big debate in Brazil's presidential campaign. Voters seem to have no interest in Rousseff's cancelation of her state visit to Washington, nor are they showing much interest in Brazil's relations with its neighbors, Africa and Europe.
How will China-Brazil relations develop over the next four years? The bilateral ties between the world's largest developing country and the western hemisphere's largest developing country have been strong. In the realm of economics, trade and investment between the two countries have both been rising rapidly. In the political arena, a strategic partnership was first established between China and Brazil in 1993 and was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2012. Furthermore, the two emerging economies have also been ambitiously and effectively cooperated through BRICS and other multilateral arenas.
Therefore, Rousseff wins, the development of bilateral relations between Brazil and China will certainly maintain its momentum. Even if another candidate wins, the likelihood of setbacks in this relationship is quite slim simply because bilateral ties have been firmly built on a solid foundation of good will and win-win benefits. As a matter of fact, no Brazilian leader can afford to neglect China's importance in every aspect of Brazil's future development.
But the new Brazilian president needs to consider a range of domestic issues in order to make the strategic partnership with China more meaningful and more tangible. Brazil's next leader will need to address improving the Brazilian investment environment to attract more Chinese investment. If Brazil wishes to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, its leaders should keep itself away from Japan, a country that also wishes to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council but still refuses to recognize its war crimes. If Brazil wants to promote trade relations with China, it needs to apply less anti-dumping against Chinese exports.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/jiangshixue.htm
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