Bloody border skirmishes between Pakistan and India
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, October 15, 2014
India's aggressiveness is partly due to elections being held in some of its key states. The ruling party has traditionally used the Pakistan factor to successfully attract Hindu hardline voters.
The fight is also linked to the rivalry between the two countries over Afghanistan. India is heavily involved in that country and has made costly investments in various projects there. With the planned drawdown of Western troops scheduled for the end of this year, both India and Pakistan are trying to increase their influence in the war-torn country. Pakistan has an easier time handling its strategy due to its geographical proximity with Kabul, forcing India to adopt a more aggressive posture towards Pakistan in order to divert its attention from the western border to the eastern frontier.
In Pakistan, the powerful army controls the security policy of the country, including responses to cross-border violations. The current civilian government has already been considerably weakened due to protests led by opposition parties. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was keen to improve ties with India when he came to power, and he visited India in May to attend Modi's oath-taking ceremony. His overt willingness to embrace New Delhi is a hard pill to swallow for traditionalists, who term India the "arch enemy." The latest clashes have further weakened Sharif's ability to exert any influence on security matters.
The scenario is quite alarming. On one side, there is a right-wing Indian leader who is keen to flex India's muscles against Pakistan at the slightest provocation. Conversely, we have a weak Prime Minister in Pakistan who can hardly venture into the realm of security issues. There is no dearth of hardliners in the two countries thinking about a limited war under the nuclear shadow. It is a very dangerous situation, as there is no tangible limit to a "limited war," and any local conflict in India and Pakistan may easily balloon out of control. Then it will become a total war.
The writer is Pakistan-based analyst.
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