Carbon reduction: A challenge for both China and US
- By Shen Dingli
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 25, 2014
Five years after the Copenhagen summit, China has developed both acute necessity and more resources to act proactively on carbon reduction. On one hand, along with its carbon emissions, China is also producing massive amount of pollutants of all sorts, seriously impairing its own sustainability. It is time to revamp its development model by being environmentally conscious. To be honest, capturing and sequestrating carbon and other sources of pollutants fundamentally serves the interests to China in terms of social stability and regime legitimacy. On the other hand, given China’s keen interest in investing in clean and renewable energy over the past decade, it is now in a much better shape to commit deeper cut of carbon intensity.
By any measure, the Xi-Obama joint commitment to climate change is nontrivial. While China has committed to a peak emission in 16 years, the U.S. has aspired to attain even deeper absolute reduction, both warranting more restructuring of their energy consumption. Plus the recent EU commitment to reduce its carbon emission by 40% from 1990-2030, most of the major economies of the world are well positioned to cut their green house gas emissions in the next 16 years.
To turn its energy strategy green and clean, China surely must reduce its dependence on coal. However the use of oil and gas still generates green house gas, neither completely green nor renewable sources of energy. Therefore it has to improve its own carbon capture and sequestration technology while still using fossil fuels. A more essential approach is to turn to a carbon-free strategy, such as hydroelectric, wind power and nuclear energy etc. But given China’s population scale and projection of economic growth, the Bloomberg has estimated that the country has to build 1,000 nuclear power reactors, or 500,000 aerogenerators, or 50,000 solar farms, to meet its target by 2030. Too daunting and unrealistic a task, it does offer both challenge and opportunity for China, and for China-U.S. cooperation.
As the U.S. presently only emits 13% of the green house gas of the world, Obama’s reduction plan is expected to be challenged in Congress, especially after next January. With or without China to fulfill its commitment, divided American politics will likely to make it difficult to attain a bipartisan consensus to take the lead in curtailing carbon emissions, when China seems to be free before it touches its CO2 ceiling by 2030. Obviously, if China could not keep its words it will help fuel the U.S. political debate on the necessity of a unilateral cut. Reciprocally, if the U.S.fails to fulfill its cut by 2025, it will be hard to find fault on China if the latter could not deliver its promise by 2030.
Despite the challenge, the stake is high. The IEA has projected that by 2040, China would invest $4.6t to upgrade its energy industry, including $1.77t on its nuclear and renewable sector, the U.S. business has a good chance to take a share. Without concern for another reelection, President Obama will be keen now to leave enough fingerprints on his presidency, especially since the Democrats lost the recent mid-term election. Then, COP 21 Paris presents him and all leaders an important chance to make a historical breakthrough; the Joint Sino-U.S. Statement on Climate Change is well prepared for such a success.
The author is a professor and Vice Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University. He is also the founder and director of China’s first non-government-based Program on Arms Control and Regional Security at Fudan University.
This article was first published at Chinausfocus.com To see the original version please visit http://www.chinausfocus.com/energy-environment/carbon-reduction-a-challenge-for-both-china-and-us/
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