China's economy grew 3 times faster than the US

By John Ross
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, February 2, 2015
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Given such a reliable record over more than three and a half decades, China is clearly continuing to develop in line with the key goals officially reiterated by President Xi Jinping: "We have set the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the centenary of the Communist Party of China in 2021 and building China into a modern socialist country... by the centenary of the People's Republic of China in 2049."

Outside China, understandably, there is less understanding of the framework of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" within which Chinese economic policy is designed, so it may be useful to use the recent explanation of why China's extremely high growth rate will continue provided by one of China's leading economists, Justin Yifu Lin.

In analyzing domestic China factors, Lin noted, "In 2008, China's per capita income was just over one-fifth that of the United States. This gap is roughly equal to the gap between the U.S. and Japan in 1951, after which Japan grew at an average annual rate of 9.2 percent for the next 20 years, or between the U.S. and South Korea in 1977, after which South Korea grew at 7.6 percent per year for two decades. Singapore in 1967 and Taiwan in 1975 had similar gaps - followed by similar growth rates. By extension, in the 20 years after 2008, China should have a potential growth rate of roughly 8 percent."

While Lin posited that China's average long term growth rate would be around 8 percent, shorter term projections must take external economic factors into account. Lin argued, "The external scenario, however, is gloomier… As a result, Chinese growth is likely to fall below its potential of 8 percent a year. As policymakers plan for the next five years, they should set China's growth targets at 7-7.5 percent, adjusting them within that range as changes in the international climate dictate. Such a growth target can… achieve the country's goal of doubling income by 2020." Indeed, a 7 percent annual growth rate from 2015 would result in China somewhat exceeding its target of doubling the size of its economy from 2010 to 2020.

Lin notes that the reason China can meet such targets also strikes to the core of an elementary economic error that leads to much erroneous media analysis of China. Lin states, "China has the potential to maintain robust growth by relying on domestic demand, and not only household consumption." Economically, in any country, domestic "demand" is not equal to consumption, as writers such as Pettis erroneously state, but is equal to consumption plus investment.

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