Crash of economic crash theory
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China Daily, June 2, 2015
In the second quarter, China's growth rate may decrease to 6.6 percent, and below 6.5 percent in the third quarter. The annual growth is expected to be slightly less than 7 percent, within the target bounds.
As the policy rate is being cut closer to 2 percent, consumer inflation, too, is expected to climb from the low of 1.4 percent in the first quarter to 2.5 percent at the end of the year.
Internally, China's deceleration reflects the eclipse of the demographic transition as the share of working-age people in the total population has been on decline since 2010. Externally, it signals slower demand in the stagnating advanced economies. However, the "Belt and Road Initiative" supports economic integration across Asia and beyond. Moreover, China-proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will strengthen demand for raw materials and commodities in the region.
But real downside risks remain. And these risks could get bigger if the government's stimulus policies fail to support growth or if easing policies prove ineffective. In turn, such risks could be compounded by further declines in property prices.
The government, however, could cope with such challenges by launching new stimulus measures, or absorbing the losses on financial institutions' balance sheets. In turn, China's central bank could intensify easing and allow the yuan to depreciate faster.
Structural reforms are likely to strengthen toward the end of the year, when some analysts expect vital changes, including deposit-rate liberalization and reform in State-owned enterprises. While property developers continue to struggle with oversupply and price correction, sales could pick up later in 2015.
According to the crash oracles, Chinese consumption, which was 37 percent of GDP in 2014, should be closer to 70 percent as in the US. In reality, Chinese consumption has increased dramatically at the expense of investment. Moreover, consumption levels differ between advanced and emerging economies. And the level of consumption is no panacea.
Ultimately, growth deceleration is only a part of the big picture. From 2010 to 2015, China's growth has decelerated from over 10 percent to less than 7 percent. And yet China's per capita income has almost doubled.
In the West, governments and central banks are running out of ammunition. That is not the case in China.
The author is research director of International Business at India China and America Institute (US) and visiting fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore).
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