The Iran deal is a reality. It is a fact, and much to the consternation of a portion of the Republican Party, the Saudis and the Israelis, it is probably here to stay. Although the United States Congress and the Iranian Majlis will take their time approving the deal and might let it languish, for all practical purposes, this is a new reality which needs to be taken into consideration from now on. Strategic calculations in the Middle East must consequently be changed, and changes to economic calculations naturally cannot be far behind either.

Given this situation, it might be prudent for policymakers to start deciding how much this deal practically impacts mercantile interests. All of the commentary seems to be focused on the geo-political and strategic aspects of the Iran deal, which are of course important. I dealt with those in a previous column explaining how much Russia and Saudi Arabia are losing influence in Europe and the Middle East, respectively, due to this historic rebalancing. However, the economic impact of this deal is staggering and needs to be assessed.

Germany has been the first country to jump on the economic bandwagon with Iran following the deal, leaving behind other major players like France, the United Kingdom and even India, Iran's traditional financial ally. As a result of the new deal, India was supposed to lose much of the advantage it enjoyed due to sanctions, but it received an unexpected and surprising gain last week when Iran offered India a multibillion-dollar contract to develop and help operate the strategically priceless Chabahhar port. Perhaps as a sign of gratitude, perhaps as a sign of still-present skepticism of Western powers, Iran wants to engage Indian economic and military muscle in its development and foreign policy as it faces the prospect of a power vacuum in Afghanistan.

Germany, which is possibly the strongest mercantile power in Europe, was also not far behind. German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmar Gabriel led a huge delegation to Iran a week ago, saying he hopes Germany can play a "positive role" in improving relations between Iran and the European Union, just as it has played a “positive role in nuclear talks." The German delegation is the first to officially visit Iran since negotiators agreed on the nuclear deal in Vienna on July 14. Following Germany's lead, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius also said that the French hardline won't deter French businesses from creating ties with Iran, which is curious, as France was the most hawkish of the powers during negotiations, occasionally threatening to veto the agreement.

There are important factors to take into consideration, however, when speculating about which country will become Iran's most effective economic partner. India is also more traditionally laid back when it comes to foreign policy decision-making, and Indian companies are too notoriously fratricidal to actually form a centralized powerhouse that can offer bids for Iranian markets. For all practical purposes, Indian companies will be content with small export niches. The mercantile nature of Germany and France is likewise constrained by EU laws, and their liberal order is a disadvantage in the ruthless pursuit of business interests.

Herein lies the possibility of China's entry into Iran with its no-holds-barred approach. Chinese and Persian states and communities have had trading ties for many centuries. China also doesn't share the historical liability and baggage of Russia, the U.K., the U.S. and Europe. Chinese-Iranian trade increased from about US$3 billion in 2001 to over US$50 billion in 2014. Chinese oil imports from Iran are currently at their highest level ever.

Iran is actively seeking partners for international development, and Chinese expertise and competitive advantage could prove extremely helpful in this context. Needless to say, it would be a crowning glory for China's Belt and Road initiatives, for the reduction of Chinese dependence on foreign energy, and for the expansion of China's maritime trade. EU-bound goods from China would arrive at their destination much more easily if they were to be processed through Iranian infrastructure, which could in turn be developed solidly and affordably through partnerships with China. One cannot stress how geopolitically significant this step would be. Imagine a situation in which the Chinese navy is constrained by other major powers in the choke points of the Indo-Pacific, and Chinese imports of oil and energy pass unhindered over land routes through Iran. That could have potentially immense significance.

Understandably, China is pushing hard for the final approval and implementation of the Iranian nuclear deal. Two nuclear plants in the country are scheduled to be built by China, according to official Iranian media. It has also been reported that Chinese fighters refueled and Chinese navy vessel docked in Iran, a first for both countries. It will be interesting to see which country turns out to be the biggest winner, but it is fair to say that China enjoys a natural advantage. Policymakers should take note.

The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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