Syria: Haven't we paid enough?
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 21, 2015
Judging by all this, it is time for politicians to make resolute decisions. However, growing awareness of the urgency and severity of the ISIS threat does not necessarily lead to compromise and concessions. Russia and Iran regard a Syria led by Bashar Assad as a staunch ally. Without him, their geopolitical influence in the region will be greatly weakened. Saudi Arabia and the West share common dissatisfaction with Assad for being allied with Iran.
The political resolution will be a division of the cake of political power of Syria. The division will be a negotiated one, but will depend on the comparison of strengths on the ground. By accepting a realistic approach to the political resolution, the West and Saudi Arabia certainly intend to gain on the table what they cannot get from the proxy war. But it is unrealistic. Why should Russia fight to lose?
The Free Syrian Army, the opposition military forces backed by the National Coalition politically, has gradually lost a voice regarding Syria's future because of its poor performance on the ground. However, still keeping to an unrealistic expectation that Assad can be forced to leave, they will still be a problem in the political settlement.
A potential realistic outcome will be Assad remaining at the center of Syria's power structure while giving some parliamentary and cabinet seats to the opposition. The negotiations then become a give-and-take game.
Many reports indicate that more than 250,000 people have lost their lives since the outbreak of Syrian crisis in 2011, and millions of refugees have been created. The world, and Syria in particular, has paid too high a price. However, nobody knows when politicians will be able to reach an agreement and when to implement it. It might be at least half a year, a year, or two years. That is to say, Syria will have to bleed for some time more.
Anyway, it should be good news that the joint cause of fighting against terrorism offers common ground for a political settlement. However, politicians will have to demonstrate courage to make decisions. Syria cannot afford to bleed any more.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm
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