With allies like these…
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 26, 2015
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A war plane crashing in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down by Turkish fighter jets near the Turkish-Syrian border, is seen in this still image taken from video November 24, 2015. |
The inevitable confrontation everyone was expecting since Russia intervened in Syria finally happened. A Russian Su24 returning from a bombing run near the Northern Syria border was shot down by two F16s of the Turkish air force.
Details are still hard to obtain in the fog of war, but it resulted in the death of a Russian pilot, and a marine killed while conducting a helicopter rescue operation. The Su24 delivered its payload bombing Turkmen tribes antagonistic to Bashar Assad, who are also ethnically related to Uighurs and Turks, and get weapons by Turkey.
On the way back, the pilot was warned by Turkish air defenses, which he chose to ignore for unknown reasons. After that, there is confusion as to whether it entered Turkish airspace or remained in Syrian based on disputed radar data from both sides. The flight navigator of the downed jet mentioned there were no warnings, or even visual contact, or obtain to escort the jet to land; instead, there was just a straight hit. Turkey insisted it warned the Russian jet over 10 times over a span of five minutes.
In light of that, the two questions I have heard in the past 24 hours are: is it the first time this has happened between a NATO and a non-NATO country, and will there be a war? The answer to the first question is no, as it happened several times during the Cold War, especially during the 1950s. There were multiple instances during the Korean War where Russian and American jets were downed by the other side, even though the two countries were not at war with each other.
Secondly, there is not going to be a war between Turkey and Russia, and definitely not between NATO and Russia. Both Russia and NATO seem to want to deescalate the situation. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has cancelled his trip to Turkey, but that is essentially where it will stop.
There might be a future response, with Russian arming Kurds fighting Turkey. Russia also is adding on to deterrence by placing a missile cruiser and S300s in its airbase in Syria as well as adding to fighter escorts to her bomber fleets; but it won't risk annihilation by declaring war on Turkey.
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