The end of Europe (as we know it)?
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 28, 2016
If the migration crisis has inflamed the Brexit debate and is fueling Schengen's erosion, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction, is it likely to de-escalate in the foreseeable future? Well, as Merkel's support is eroding in Germany, the chancellor has sought an agreement with Turkey, which is already hosting 2.7 million refugees from the 5-year-old Syrian civil war. Recently the EU and Turkey reached an agreement that will force asylum seekers (of whom 40% are children) who take clandestine routes to be sent back. In exchange, Turkey will receive €6.6 billion in aid, visa-free access for its citizens in the Schengen zone and the eventual resumption of talks on its EU membership. The deal has been denounced as impractical, legally suspect, hard to enforce and inhuman.
In the short-term, coordinated immigration policies could actually provide a temporary boost in several EU economies, while alleviating the adverse impact of aging populations over time. In the medium-term, more conciliatory policies with Russia and Ukraine, Syria and the Middle East would go a long way to defuse tensions. But in the absence of credible, coordinated and medium-term immigration policies, uncontrolled immigration is likely to continue to undermine Schengen, boost anti-EU forces, and contribute to further geopolitical friction within and around Europe's periphery - especially in Greece, which is amid its Great Depression and Turkey that's amid multiple frictions internally and externally.
What if these are the "good years"
While Europe's growth potential has been significantly diminished in the past half a decade, it is supported by record-low policy rates, rounds of QE, the collapse of oil prices and cheaper euro. It is thus tempting to ask: If these truly are the "good years" of the rebound, how will Europe cope with the "bad years" in the future?
What the European economy needs is more fiscal accommodation and investment to translate lingering growth to structural recovery. Yet, only structural reform efforts have the potential to solidify the future of Europe; with or without the euro. In the medium-term, the region's economic uncertainty continues to be fueled by the spluttering US recovery, Japan's contraction and China's deceleration.
In a very long-term perspective, what we are witnessing is the steady erosion of Europe's economic power, political clout and strategic weight. Today, Europe still accounts for about 24% in the world economy. As long-term projections suggest, that share is likely to halve by 2050, in part because of the region's secular stagnation and because of the relatively faster growth of emerging economies.
However, the erosion of Europe in the world economy can be accelerated or decelerated. The past half a decade shows the potential of deceleration, which has pushed Europe to the brink. In the coming months, the challenge is to halt and reverse that trajectory. The longer procrastination prevails in Brussels and the core member states, the harder will be the challenge.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognised expert of the nascent multipolar world. He is the CEO of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). Born in Europe, he spends much of his time in the US, China, Asia and elsewhere. For more, see www.differencegroup.net
The original commentary was released by The World Financial Review on March 25, 2016
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