Framing China-US relations in the 21st century
- By Shen Dingli
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 6, 2016
In short, the US is anxious about China's predictability in external behavior, based on its a lack of transparency of policy intent as well as interest in keeping conformity with international law. This might be a typical prelude which, if ill handled, could lead to the Thucydides' trap.
In this context, Kissinger suggested that China and the US shall present statecraft by clarifying their respective principles on crucial regional security matters, say the Korean nuclear issue and South China Sea issue. At a micro level, obviously China and the US would have quite some differences in terms of understanding of and approaches to any particular event, but at a macro level they might be still able to enjoy more consensuses to achieve peace and stability. He suggested that the approach of strategic farsightedness embodied in the Shanghai Communique of 1972 might still be applicable to the two countries on the question of South China Sea. His wisdom deserves serious pondering by the leaders in Beijing and Washington, DC.
China's former State Councilor, Dai, put it more plainly. He pointed out that Sino-US relations should be framed with a bottom line without capping. Alternatively, China and the US should avoid the worst-case scenarios, whether a hot war or cold war. Instead, Beijing and Washington should build a partnership with no upper limit. He particularly refers to what President Xi Jinping calls a "new type of major-country relationship" – no clash, no confrontation (with bottom line), mutual respect, win-win through cooperation (no upper limit).
For China-US relations, both Kissinger and Dai have pointed the need of long-term vision and management. The policy makers should frame bilateral ties with a macro view. This way they will be able to manage relations with predictability and assuredness. The Shanghai Communique has played such a role during the Cold War era. Now China and the US badly need a new framework guideline that would suit their relations for the post-Cold War century.
In addition to vision and long-term outlook, Dai actually has urged the two countries to fix their relations so as to allow unlimited collaboration while being able to contain damage. This Chinese version of framework, close-bottomed and open-ended, would allow Beijing and Washington to handle their partnership with both realism and opportunism.
In the age of China's catching up with American dominion, both countries should share the wisdom of Kissinger and Dai. Should such efforts fail, the two countries would face disastrous consequences.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/shendingli.htm
This article was first published at Chinausfocus.com To see the original version please visit http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/framing-china-u-s-relations-in-the-21st-century/
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