G20 talks between Japan and China should be welcomed
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 3, 2016
This year's G20 Leaders' Summit in the Chinese city of Hangzhou comes at a time when the world is wracked by problems.
Who, now, remembers, that earlier this year there was talk of a Chinese economic crash that hindsight shows was premature. The G20 meeting is now occurring when, comparatively, the Chinese economy is among the most stable in the world.
The EU has been rocked by Brexit -- the UK's planned exit -- Russia is struggling to cope with two stagnating wars, and the United States is riven by a wave of public protectionist sentiment.
Asia, too, has had its share of geopolitical disequilibrium, involving India and China and China and the Philippines. Still, the regional situation is comparatively calm when compared to other parts of the World. The choice of an oriental venue for the G20 summit, therefore, seems apt. After all, unlike the U.N., it has been known to produce some real change in the world, formulating policies and dialogues between the major global players.
One key area for China to show leadership is in regard to structural reforms, one of the key platforms of Chinese government policy. China's growth, as has been discussed in trade ministers' meetings, can be used to promote major trade liberalism in various sectors.
However, above all this, there is an expectation of a thaw in Sino-Japanese relations that could have broad regional implications.
On August 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi to attend the sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development, where he met 34 African head of states, including heavyweights like South Africa, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.
This was interpreted as an interesting geopolitical move occurring just before the G20 meeting, as Japan is trying to woo Africa alongside China, India and various Western countries, especially France. It also marks a Japanese African policy shift from aid to more active investment.
The previous week in Tokyo, Abe's top aide met China's senior diplomat, Yang Jiechi, to lay the groundwork for the highly significant meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Abe on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also met with the visiting head of the secretariat of Japan's National Security Council, Shotaro Yachi, in Beijing, where he stressed to his visitor that both China and Japan needed to work to get their fraught relations back on track, especially with 2017 marking the 45th anniversary of the normalization of ties and 2018 being the 40th anniversary of their Treaty of Peace and Friendship.
Japan has been sending out mixed signals on what it wants from China, and one can imagine that this, in itself, represents a strategy. On one hand, Japan is trying, through various means, to achieve détente with China.
Abe's meeting with President Xi is an extremely good step in that direction. The focus of both countries has been to develop a conciliatory atmosphere, ahead of the G20 meeting.
Of course, these things take time to develop. One needs to remember that the SALT talks between Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon were two years in the making, for example. While Japan and China is in no way in a similar situation to the United States and Soviets during the 1970s, it's obvious that a certain "atmosphere' is needed for any high-level talks to proceed.
The journeys undertaken by senior Chinese and Japanese diplomats in this regard is a welcome development.
Deep differences remain however. Mr. Abe's remarks in Africa, for example, also contained a call for free movement in Asia-Pacific waterways, although it remains unclear how much diplomatic backing Japan expects to get from Africa in this regard. Nor is it clear if Japanese actions to balance Chinese economic investment with deeds rather than words will succeed.
Chinese investment in Africa has been going on for a long time, and China's recent base in Djibouti proves it can accept a security burden if necessary. Japan clearly will have to depend on the West to provide any needed security for its forays into Africa, not to mention that any investment there carries the risk of terrorism, diseases, and structural deficiencies and corruption -- things in which Japan has limited experience due to its isolationist policies. China, on the other hand, has experience in investing in Latin America and Africa and has accumulated considerable goodwill.
Finally, recent Japanese moves towards militarization, and the changing character of the nation, raise questions in the region's geopolitical structure. No great power seeks complications.
As of now, however, the near-term alignments match, reflecting a desire for détente on both side. Abe is understandably more worried about the success of his "Abenomics" policy, and both Japan and China wants to make this G20 a success amidst the recent complications in Asia. This provides a hopeful scenario.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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