In 49 BCE, Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River (in Northeast Italy), in defiance of the Roman Senate. It was a red line not supposed to be crossed, with deterrence posed by the forces of Pompey, the Roman military and political leader.

What followed is now an iconic phrase when Caesar declared "Alea Icta Est," which, in Latin meant "the die is cast." He took up the challenge and was able to enter Rome victorious.

On Thursday night, Indian armed forces crossed a Rubicon of sorts, when its special forces and para commandos were air-dropped into the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir across the so-called "line of control," where they carried out operations against some seven or eight camps, and, according to an Indian government statement, killed over 30 Islamic and Kashmiri insurgents, as well as two Pakistani soldiers. There were no Indian casualties. By dawn, the Indian forces were back home.

This is an intensely significant action. In 2015, India crossed the border into Myanmar chasing terrorists in what was, at the time, the only known Indian surgical strike in its neighborhood during peacetime, or without any call for help.

Of course Indian forces have operated in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives in the past, but none of these actions was during peacetime. This is an obvious break from the military doctrine of "strategic patience" and proves the Myanmar operation was not a one-off. This is a new strategy of sudden, shock attacks aimed at neutralizing threats while seeking to and stay below the threshold of retaliation.

India immediately called in the envoys of all the major powers, including the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K. and France, and briefed them about the operation. It is curious that this operation comes only hours after Susan Rice, head of the American National Security Agency, had a telephone conversation with her Indian NSA counterpart, Ajit Doval, pledging all support in any action against terrorists.

The Chinese government, however, expressed concern over the situation in Indian-occupied Kashmir, saying Beijing places great importance on Pakistan's position, and that dialogue and negotiations are the only way to reach a solution in this protracted dispute of over 60 years.

According to sources, India has a video recording and photographs as well as evidence of cross- border strikes by alleged terrorists, but hesitates to show them so as not to humiliate Pakistan too much and stress its desire for de-escalation.

However India still holds the cards and will produce them if need be, say in the face of any Pakistani denial. India's obvious desire to keep the U.S. in the loop also signifies that India wants Washington to let Pakistan know there is no desire to see further escalation, in case direct communications break down.

India is obviously attaching much importance to its ties with the U.S., much more than any other power, in perhaps the most significant acknowledgement of a new close partnership.

The risks are enormous, though. First of all, India didn't even cross the LOC during the heady days of the Kargil War (in mid-1999, when the two countries clashed in the Kargil region of Kashmir), so this new brashness is a clear departure from previous restraint.

This is the "Modi Doctrine" in action, where India takes the idea of deterrence to new heights, and also showing this has its limitations as Caesar proved. For example, according to the Indian strategic doctrine, Pakistan uses proxies to escalate confrontation feeling safe under a nuclear umbrella and believing India is helpless to act.

This, however, has proved not to be the case. Now, it is up to Pakistan to retaliate where India's deterrence and diplomatic clout is assumed to work well.

However, a single nuclear exchange in the subcontinent would result in 21 million deaths in a flash, with radiation fallout experienced from Iran to Cambodia, from Siberia to New Zealand. The entire region's ecosystem, ozone layer and temperature will be permanently damaged affecting over 4 billion people, including citizens and soldiers of China and U.S. It's foolish to imagine nuclear war once begun can be contained locally.

At this stage, fortunately, the risks seem low. There was more jingoism during the 1999-2001 period. Reaction in both countries is muted. That is definitely a good sign. It must not encourage other countries to act rashly, while India has signaled its resolve successfully with minimal credible deterrence as well.

That should be the end of the matter. There's no military solution for Kashmir, harsh as it may sound. If the real nuclear die is really cast, it will end up being the last act of Pakistan as well as the Republic of India and will unleash hell in the entire Asian landmass for the next 400 years.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn

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