China and the Philippines – a genuine switch of alliances in Asia?
- By Tim Collard
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 4, 2016
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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte attends a welcome dinner at the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Laos September 6, 2016. [Photo/Agencies] |
Earlier this year there was a build-up of tension in and around the South China Sea, as U.S.-allied countries including the Philippines and Vietnam openly disputed China's claim to sovereignty over large areas of sea and the islands within those areas, as set out in China's "dotted-line" map of the region. The Philippines was particularly vocal in their opposition to Chinese claims, and fears grew that they might try to embroil the United States in a conflict with China.
This became, inevitably, a factor in the Presidential election in the Philippines in May. Many Filipinos feared that the front-runner, Rodrigo Duterte, known as an outspoken statesman of radical views, might exacerbate the situation by taking up a strong anti-China position.
In fact, following Duterte's election, the reverse has happened. Far from seeking conflict over the islands and their surrounding waters, Duterte visited China a week ago and appears to have proclaimed total alignment with China on the global stage, and to have distanced himself unequivocally from his country's long-standing American ally (and former colonial master).
"In this venue (the Great Hall of the People), I announce my separation from the United States," Duterte proclaimed on Oct. 20. "I have realigned myself ideologically to China, and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to President Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way."
Now, while this declaration can hardly have been unwelcome to the Chinese leaders, they will be aware that Duterte has a tendency of grandiloquence speech and mercurial shifts of thought and logic. They also know that such a radical reversal of alliances cannot take place in the course of a single speech, however impressive the venue. Already a number of Philippine government ministers and senior officials have attempted to water down Duterte's words and place them in a slightly more rational context.
The world knows – and Duterte has made no secret of it – that his outburst was largely motivated by anger at American "interference" on the subject of his shoot-to-kill anti-drugs policy. No country likes to have a finger wagged at it by a former colonial power. In practice there are such close ties between American and Philippine economies and military forces that a clean break would be completely impossible. The Philippines and the U.S. will be able to get back on terms quite easily, once the turmoil of the U.S. presidential election is over.
But the real significance of Duterte's proclaimed shift of allegiance is probably related to the regional economic order. By making it absolutely clear that the Philippines no longer intends to allow territorial disputes to stand in the way of cooperation and friendship with China, he is showing readiness to align his country, not necessarily with all of China's global policies, but with the new Chinese-led regional economic order represented by the AIIB and the Belt and Road project building on China's consistent policy of grounding international relations on solid economic cooperation.
He is, of course, hoping for a reward for this show of friendship and loyalty – and he will probably get it, given that China is such a huge source of lending and foreign direct investment for her regional neighbors. Reports from the Philippines talk of low-interest Chinese loans, from both state and private sources, to the value of US$9 billion.
There is huge potential for development of Chinese investment in the Philippines. Average annual inflows into the Philippines have fallen far behind other South East Asian countries such as Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. And, in 2015, only 1.4 percent of total FDI came from China (including Hong Kong). Duterte has ambitious infrastructural plans, aiming to raise infrastructure spending to 7 percent of GDP; his main support base is in the poorer and remoter areas of the country, which would benefit considerably from such a program. China could provide a source from which to finance it.
On top of that, Duterte's change in approach has encouraged China to come up with a major aid donation for the victims of the recent super-typhoon Haima, known in the Philippines as "Lawin," which wreaked devastation over parts of the central Philippines in mid-October. China has pledged US$1.85 million in support.
Thus, although President Duterte's speech in the Great Hall of the People does not really denote an intention to break the U.S. alliance, it signifies that the Philippines have powerful alternatives to the U.S. link. In particular, next time Duterte speaks to a U.S. president he will be able to point to considerable Chinese contributions to his country's economy, and expect the Americans at least to match it to retain their position as an alliance partner. In fact, he has positioned his country very neatly between the two superpowers.
Tim Collard is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/timcollard.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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