China, S. America in the light of Trump's election victory
- By Heiko Khoo
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E-mail China.org.cn, November 20, 2016
President Xi Jinping's visit to South America follows hot on the heels of Donald Trump's election as president of the United States. South American leaders sent, at best, muted messages of congratulation to Mr Trump; and Bolivia's left-wing President Evo Morales adopted a sarcastic and hostile tone: "Congratulations to Donald Trump on his victory. We hope to work against racism, machismo and anti-immigration, and for the sovereignty of our peoples."
Mexico's leaders have the biggest reasons to be worried. Trump's hostility to Mexican emigration to the United States is one of the central planks of his policy agenda. He exploits anti-Mexican prejudices in the crudest and most ignorant form - calling them criminals and rapists - in order to whip up primitive racist sentiments among the most backward layers of the middle and working classes. As a consequence of Trump's election, the value of the Mexican peso fell by more than 10 percent.
Trump's crazy plan - to build a giant wall to halt illegal migration - is symbolic of a new isolationism. This will be reinforced by protectionist policies; such is his threat to impose massive tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. To justify this, the myth that American jobs have migrated to China has been assiduously propagated to explain the long economic crisis that has crippled the life chances of huge swathes of the U.S. population. However, the uncertainty hanging over U.S.-Latin American relations offers China the opportunity to deepen its ties with Central and South American nations.
Chinese investment in South America has risen dramatically over the past 10 years. Governments of the left in Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia consider China to be an important ally. Chinese investments have generally been complementary to the needs of its South American partners. For example, Argentinean soya bean production to cater for Chinese demand has allowed its government to increase spending on social programs, which were funded by taxes on soya exports. Chinese investment in Cuba, and its assistance with oil exploration and exploitation, provided an essential lifeline to the beleaguered state. Also, Chinese-Venezuelan joint investment programs allowed the Venezuelan government to continue dramatic social improvement in housing, infrastructure, education and healthcare. In exchange, Venezuela provides help with China's long-term energy security through its oil exports.
But times have changed. Brazil and Argentina's left-wing presidents both fell from power in the last year, and Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, faces a catastrophic economic crisis, with hyperinflation and chronic shortages undermining his base of social support. At present there seems little hope for the Venezuelan revolution. In addition, President Obama inaugurated a relaxation of tension with Cuba, but Donald Trump looks set to reverse this process. However, Trump's victory also signals the end of the so-called neoliberal, free-market ideology, which successive U.S. leaders and institutions have sought to impose on South America. So a new constellation of economic and political relations will inevitably emerge over the next few years.
Despite the fall of left-wing governments in South America, the effect of sluggish economic growth and increasing social inequality will continue to exert pressure on those in power. At root, the failure of the United States in South America is the result of its anti-communist ideological DNA. This has a political and economic character. A blind hatred of anyone and everyone who advocates social justice for the impoverished masses of South America led successive U.S. governments to support even the most barbarous South American dictators throughout the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s. This was supplemented by the dogmatic imposition of swingeing austerity measures against the people as a precondition for financial assistance to these countries.
Therefore it should be no surprise if China's trade ties and political profile in South America soon enter a golden age. In the international division of labor, China and South America constitute complimentary economic partners. Perhaps, above all else, the dream of a united South American continent can receive an enormous boost through Chinese infrastructure investment. One example is the planned 5000km railway from the Peruvian Pacific to the Brazilian Atlantic. In addition, assistance to eradicate the shanty towns and replace them with quality housing for the masses is an important means by which China can win friends and influence people throughout the continent.
Heiko Khoo is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/heikokhoo.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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