Iran likely to make concessions: expert
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E-mail Xinhua, March 26, 2012
Under tightening sanctions imposed by the West, Iran is likely to make some concessions in the upcoming nuclear talks, an Iranian expert has said.
After about a more than one-year-long deadlock over talks on Iran's suspected nuclear program, Tehran in mid-February replied to European Union (EU) Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton's October letter over the resumption of nuclear talks.
Ashton later responded to Iran's proposal, saying that five permanent members of UN Security Council plus Germany (G5+1) agreed to restart nuclear talks with Iran.
Recently different sources have been saying a new round of nuclear talks between Iran and G5+1 countries will get started in the near future, although the venue and timing are yet to be announced.
Dr. Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor of political science with Tehran University, told Xinhua in a recent interview that Iran, under increasing sanctions, is serious and genuine about the upcoming nuclear talks, and will likely make some concessions.
"There are many reasons (why Tehran may give concessions). (For one), sanctions are affecting Iran, especially the sanctions over Iran's central bank. Iran has found it difficult to import and export." said Zibakalam.
However, Iran will not completely give in to the U.S. pressures, the Iranian expert argued.
Making concessions "doesn't mean that we must expect Iran to raise its hands and say that it gives in to the United States," Zibakalam said, adding that "Iran is willing to give concessions, provided that G5+1 also gives some concessions in return."
In February, a confidential report of the UN nuclear watchdog said that the Islamic republic had sped up the production of high-grade enriched uranium over the past few months, which raised concerns about the possible weaponization of Iran's nuclear program.
The report also said that Iran failed to cooperate with the IAEA high-ranking delegation who had visited Tehran twice recently.
Zibakalam said the way to solve Iran's long-standing nuclear dispute should follow a "constructive" step-by-step procedure.
"It is a step-by-step (process). Iran moves one step. The G5+1 moves one step. Then, Iran will take another step," said the university professor.
The Iranian expert warned against any move which may lead to the failure of the talks, saying that "if the U.S., during the negotiations, starts demanding things which Iran finds ... not logical, then the negotiations won't get anywhere."
Zibakalam further said he doubts if anything substantial will happen before the U.S. presidential election, "because if Obama takes any step for reconciliation with Tehran, his Republican opponents will criticise him, will tell him that ...you are too soft on Iran."
Regarding Israel's military threats on Iran's nuclear sites, Zibakalam said he believes Israel is not bluffing, because Israel fears a nuclear Iran will pose an existential threat to it.
In the past months, some senior Israeli leaders have been saying that Israel may launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities without informing the U.S. if it feels Tehran is close enough to acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The Iranian expert said that there are two schools of thoughts about Israel with regard to Iran's nuclear program.
The first one is that some analysts believe Israel, by heightening rhetoric of military attack on Iran, wants to pressurize the western countries and other world powers into agreeing to slap harsher sanctions on Tehran, said Zibakalam.
Another one, according to Zibakalam, is that Israel is serious about its words. Because Israel fears that Iran may get nuclear weapons and arm its regional allies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.
"Because of this consideration, some analysts say that Israel is serious. And with or without the United States, if Israel thinks that Iran has reached the point where it can soon acquire a nuclear weapon, it may attack Iran," he said.
"I believe Israel is genuine, Israel is feeling threatened by Iran," he added.
Zibakalam argued that, however, if some progress can be made on Iran's nuclear issue during the next round of nuclear talks, then Israel will have less excuses for attacking Iran.
"If there are progress during the nuclear talks, ... then it would be very difficult for Israel to convince the world that Iran is a threat," he said.
Zibakalam said if Israel finally does launch attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, the U.S. will be dragged into war, and Iran will definitely retaliate by attacking Israel and the U.S. military bases in the regional countries and there is a risk that the entire region will be plunged into war.
"So, the U.S. and Israel can start the war, but they cannot finish it," he concluded.
In January, EU decided to put an oil embargo on Iran, which comes into effect in July. Zibakalam said that due to its heavy dependence on oil revenue, if Tehran takes no action, the western sanctions on Iran's lifeline oil exports will affect the country's economy badly.
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