Theoretically, rapid increases in money supply will lead to
higher prices and subsequently prompt inflation. That is the true
reason why the central bank has repeatedly stressed a contracting
of the money supply to prevent potential inflation.
But an in-depth analysis of the demand structure tells us that,
in the medium term in China, the deflationary pressure outweighs
the inflationary risk.
First, the rebound in prices in the first half of this year was
primarily driven by price hikes for food and some services -- such
as vegetables, water, electricity and medical services -- while the
prices for most industrial products continued to slide.
As a recent report by the International Monetary Fund pointed
out, when the growth of the consumer price index drops below 1
percent, real prices may be falling already due to statistical
discrepancies. Although China's consumer price index was on an
upward trend for six consecutive months, starting in January, the
pace remained below 1 percent.
Moreover, the prices of capital goods have started to fall
sharply, which heralds sluggish growth in consumer prices for the
months ahead.
Second, a changing market environment has caused changes
compared with our historic experience. Unlike the 1980s and 1990s,
when "shortage'' was the keyword in the economy, the aggregate
supply now outstrips demand.
Furthermore, the economy now has a heavy foreign reliance, and
prices for the vast majority of commodities involved in foreign
trade are, to some extent, subject to the international market.
Against the background of a decelerating world economy and an
overall drop in the prices of goods traded, the likelihood of a
surge in the prices of China's traded goods is dim. The stability
in the prices of tradable goods, which account for more than 60
percent of gross domestic product, puts a constraint on the upward
trend of overall prices.
Currently, the conditions for inflation are not yet in place in
China. On the contrary, the deflationary risk has not been defused.
If monetary policy is mishandled, the possibility of a resurgence
of deflation in the remainder of this year cannot be ruled out.
Loan growth on fast side
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has not
changed its prudent target for monetary policy, but money supply
and loans have been soaring. In the first half of the year, the
growth of money supply was 2 percentage points higher than the 18
percent target set at the beginning of the year, while new loans
hit 1.78 trillion yuan (US$214 billion), close to the 1.85 trillion
yuan (US$222 billion) in loans that were rolled out in the whole of
2002.
Why was credit growth so rapid? In addition to demand from a
rapidly growing economy, the investment momentum seen in different
parts of the country has strongly stimulated demand for loans.
Among the funding sources for fixed-asset investments, which are
growing at persistently high levels, the share of bank loans
continued to expand, with the share dropping in all other sources.
That is also true in the heated real estate sector, where domestic
bank loans and self-raised funds are the major drivers of
growth.
New tendencies in commercial banks' lending activities also
propelled the loan rises. First, banks speeded up lending as a way
to reduce their non-performing loan ratios.
Second, as the commercial paper market develops, the risks in
lending to small and medium-sized enterprises and small projects
are buffered by smaller banks, alleviating risk concerns at the
four largest banks. Consequently, loans through commercial paper
discounting rose heftily.
Third, the corporate bond market kept shrinking, forcing
businesses to rely more on bank loans.
Fourth, many bank branches played tricks with their books -- for
example, by issuing new loans to help borrowers repay old loans --
and therefore transformed non-performing loans into new loans.
Caution with reserve ratio
Facing these problems in the financial sector, we should not opt
to merely put the brakes on the aggregate volume (of money supply)
but should try to improve the lending structure on the basis of
enhanced risk management.
At the same time, we need to closely monitor the growth in money
supply and be cautious with the deposit reserve ratio policy in
order to avoid abrupt fluctuations in money supply and loans.
According to the money-multiplier theory, money supply is the
product of base money multiplied using the money multiplier, while
the mandatory reserve ratio (the amount of deposits a commercial
bank is required to deposit at the central bank) is an important
determinant in the money multiplier.
At present, the total deposits at financial institutions are
18.89 trillion yuan (US$2.27 trillion). A 2 percent rise in the
mandatory reserve ratio will add 380 billion yuan (US$45.8 billion)
in money supply. Considering the money multiplier, it can cause a
massive negative impact on money supply and is likely to result in
a reversal in the deflationary situation, which is already
improving.
An important reason behind the rapid rise in lending is the
imbalance between direct and indirect financing. Businesses have
limited financing channels and have to rely on bank loans.
New policies should be formulated to support the development of
the capital market and therefore broaden channels for direct
financing for businesses.
This is an excerpt from the report "Grasp the Treasury
Development Opportunities to Realize Rapid Economic Growth'' issued
on August 11 by the State Information Center's Economic Forecasting
Department.
(China Daily August 18, 2003)