'Pirates of the Caribbean 4' seen to boost box office
0 
The newest movie in the "Pirates of the Caribbean" series, which is due to premiere this month, may reverse the trend of a decline in Canadian and U.S. movie theater gross revenues, according to film industry analysts.
"I think there's more uncertainty now (if a movie released in a Canadian or U.S. theater is profitable), but blockbusters will continue to do well," said Bruce Nash, director of The Numbers web site that provides up-to-date losses/profits numbers for movies shown in film theaters.
When asked to provide an example of such a blockbuster film, Nash immediately named "Pirates of the Caribbean 4: On Stranger Tides," which is slated to premiere on May 20.
"What happens is that the blockbuster movies like 'Avatar' and 'Pirates of the Caribbean' raise the movie industry's profits, because people go to theaters to see these films, then they find another movie to watch while they're at the theater," explained Jonathan Taplin, Director of the University of Southern California (USC) Annenberg Lab, whose members analyze how various forms of communications and digital technologies affects the movie industry.
Taplin talks from experience: for 20 years he was a movie producer. Among the films that he produced were "Mean Streets" (1973), "The Last Waltz" (1978), "Under Fire" (1983), and "To Die For" (1995).
The two chief web sites that movie industry followers go to are The Numbers (www.thenumbers.com) or Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com).
Both web sites show a dichotomy about the fiscal status of the world's movie industries. Most of the countries' movie box office grosses are up, but those for North America are down.
According to The Numbers web site, total box office grosses for 2010 was 10.45 billion dollars, down from 2009's 10.65 billion dollars.
The Hollywood accounting industry has its own peculiar way of defining words. Although the commonly understood definition of the word "domestic" in American English usually refers but to one country, according to movie industry accountants, "domestic grosses" include those for both Canada and the United States. The rest of the world's countries' movie industries are classified as "international."
Brazil, China, India, and Russia's movie industries' grosses are increasing from previous years. The Motion Pictures Association of America reported in late February that international revenues increased 13 percent from 2009 to 2010.
At the Box Office Mojo web site, top gross numbers for 2010 were also down as compared to those for 2009.
"The main cause in the box office decline are the movies themselves. It's a product-driven industry and, when the product isn't there, neither is the audience. The slate of movies since November (of 2010) just hasn't been that appealing," noted Brandon Gray, creator and president of Box Office Mojo.
One optimistic person is Rory Bruer, president of Worldwide Theatrical Distribution for Sony Pictures Releasing.
"I do not think that the sky is falling ... I believe that the decline in the market this year is a little misunderstood," Bruer said.
"There is no question that compared to last year, when you had major first-quarter blockbusters like 'Alice in Wonderland,' 'How to Train Your Dragon,' 'Clash of the Titans,' and hundreds of millions of holdover business on 'Avatar,' this year has fallen short in comparison," he noted.
"The summer movie season is just about to get under way and with major motion pictures just around the corner ... I think that it's going to be an amazing summer."
All people interviewed for this article did agree on this: gone for good are the days when a film's fiscal success or failure was dependent solely on movie theater revenues.
"There's really two broad changes occurring," Nash said. "The demographic is changing. Baby Boomers (people born between the years 1946 to 1964) have a tendency of going to the movies less. The studios have been making movies primarily for the under 30 crowd."
"Second, the technological changes, with digital equipment and online technology. Moviegoers now have consumer choice. They can watch a movie at the theaters, on DVD, on Blue-Ray, or by way of Netflix or Blockbuster. They also can watch a film on Apple iTunes or Video on Demand. All of these options cut into profits."
Gray of Box Office Mojo echoed Nash: "The industry's in a state of transition, as it's trying to figure out how to monetize streaming and video-on-demand service to make up for flagging DVD sales. The industry opened the door to lower eventual profits by releasing movies to DVD shortly after their theatrical runs and pricing them to sell ... Consumers got used to paying little for movies and then even cheaper alternatives evolved."
Regarding Hollywood's apparent in-built bias against producing films whose target audiences are for anyone over the age of 30, Taplin did note that "there is some evidence, by some movie studios executives, that they realize that there is a profitable market for the Baby Boomers. Look at 'The King's Speech'(the 2010 Best Picture Oscar winner, which tells the story of the late stammering British King George VI). That was a good story which was made into a film and has made a profit."
"The King's Speech" production budget was approximately 15 million dollars and it has grossed almost 395 million dollars internationally. That figure -- much to the delight of the film's chief producers Ian Canning, Emile Sherman, and Gareth Unwin -- will soon increase, as "The King's Speech" recently became available to purchase on DVDs.
Go to Forum >>0 Comments