李克强在中国工会第十六次全国代表大会上的经济形势报告（全文）
Li Keqiang's report on the economic situation at the 16th National Congress of ACFTU

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编者按：10月21日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李克强应邀在中国工会第十六次全国代表大会上作了经济形势报告。报告深刻分析和阐述了我国的经济形势，阐释了我国经济中长期发展趋势。基于个人在经济学方面的研究与分析，李克强用平实直白的语言，深入浅出地将中国的宏观经济娓娓道来，其中不乏形象生动的比喻和风趣的表达。以下是报告全文：	Editor's note: On October 21, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a report at the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU). In his report, Li expressed his concerns about China's economy and mid to long term trends. He spoke about China's macro-economy, based on his research and analysis, using simple language and anecdotes. The full text of the report is as follows:
同志们，首先我代表党中央、国务院，向中国工会十六大的成功召开和选出新一届领导机构表示热烈祝贺，向我国亿万职工和广大工会干部致以诚挚问候，向中国工人阶级表示崇高敬意！我国工人阶级是发展的主力军，大家对经济形势、走势都很关心，应大会邀请，我今天主要讲三个问题。	Comrades, first of all, on behalf of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council, I would like to offer congratulations on the opening of the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU), in which the new leaders were elected. I offer my regards to the millions of employees and the officials working in the trade unions and my highest respect to the workers of China, who are the major force behind China's development. At the request of the conference, I would like to take this opportunity today to talk about three major issues, as you are all very concerned about China's economic situation.
一、关于我国经济发展形势	First, China's economic development trend
如何看待当前经济形势，需要放在国际经济大环境中来透视。新一届政府成立以来，我们面临着错综复杂的国内外形势。突出特点是世界经济复苏乏力，主要发达经济体增长低迷，好的增长1%多一点，差一些的就负增长了；发展中国家和新兴经济体中体量比较大的几个，增速普遍不超过2%，个别好的也不超过5%。2010年，我们的经济增长是两位数，达到10.4%，但到去年四季度，因为国际国内多重复杂因素交织影响，经济增长率只有7.8%，今年继续下行，一季度是7.7%，二季度是7.5%。我为什么上来要跟大家讲GDP呢？同志们可能会问，说我们不能片面强调GDP。这个话说得不错，但我们毕竟是发展中国家，发展还是我国解决一切问题的基础和关键。更重要的是，我们关注GDP，其实关注的是就业。过去，我国GDP每增长1个百分点，就会拉动大约100万人就业。经过这几年经济结构的调整，尤其是随着服务业的加快发展，目前大概GDP增长1个百分点，能够拉动130万、甚至150万人就业。我请人力资源和社会保障部和有关方面反复测算，都认为要保证新增就业1000万人、城镇登记失业率在4%左右，需要7.2%的经济增长。我们之所以要稳增长，说到底就是为了保就业。	The current economic situation should be viewed as part of the global economic environment. Since the newly elected government took office, we have encountered a complicated environment both in China and abroad. The world economy is sluggish, growth in developed economies declining, it is at best only around 1 percent and at worst there is negative growth. Several of the largest developing and emerging economies have grown no more than 2 percent, with only a few hitting nearly 5 percent. In 2010, we obtained two-digit growth, reaching 10.4 percent. However, in the fourth quarter of last year, because of multiple complexities, growth decreased to 7.8 percent, and it continued to fall to 7.7 percent in the first quarter this year, and 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Why am I talking about Gross Domestic Product (GDP) first? You will probably say we should not focus single-mindedly on GDP. This is true. But we are still a developing country and development is the key and the basis for us to solve all our problems. More importantly, when we focus on GDP, we are actually focusing on employment. We once increased employment by 1 million people for every percent of GDP growth. Due to the economic restructuring in the past few years and the accelerated development of tertiary industry, every one percent of GDP growth has created 1.3 million to 1.5 million job opportunities. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and relevant departments calculated the statistics more than once, on my request. They said that if we are to ensure that 10 million job vacancies are created and registered unemployment remains at about 4 percent in cities and towns, we need about 7.2 percent GDP growth. We need stable growth in order to create employment.
面对经济下行的压力，怎么办？要稳增长、保就业，我们有两种选择。一种选择是扩大财政赤字，增加货币供应量。通过打赤字、发票子来带动投资，这样做，虽然当年可能能见效，但需要财政、货币政策有相应的运作空间，更重要的是这种短期刺激政策难以持续。因为我们的赤字率已经达到2.1%了。这是什么概念呢？欧盟定了一个标准，就是赤字不能超过GDP的3%，当然后来很多成员国没有遵守，超过了。结果大家都知道，出现了欧债危机，从前几年一直持续到现在，一些国家经济增长无力甚至下降、失业率大增，原有的福利也无法保障。就货币来说，我们的广义货币供应量M2的余额3月末超过了100万亿元，已经是GDP的两倍了。换句话说，就是“池子”里的货币已经很多了，再多发票子就有可能导致通货膨胀。大家都知道，恶性通货膨胀，不仅干扰或者说破坏市场，而且会给人民生活带来巨大的副作用和压力，甚至造成人心惶惶。	How, then, should we deal with the declining economy? We have two options to maintain economic growth and sustainable employment. One is to increase the fiscal deficit and expand the money supply. This might be effective in a particular year, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work together. Short term stimulus policies cannot be sustained. Our deficits have already reached 2.1 percent. What does that mean? Look at the European Union. It passed regulation to prevent deficits from exceeding 3 percent of GDP. However, many countries did not conform to the rule and their deficits went above the warning line. You all know the consequence: the European debt crisis broke out and has lasted for several years. The economies in some countries have been in continuous decline. Unemployment is growing and the welfare is often not fulfilled. In terms of currency, the outstanding broad money supply (M2) in our country by the end of this March has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, twice as much as our GDP. In other words, there is enough money in the pool. Had it increased any more, inflation would probably also have increased. You all know that hyper-inflation would not only destroy the market, but also have huge negative impact, put pressure on people's lives, and even cause a panic among people.
第二种选择，就是坚持不扩大赤字，既不放松也不收紧银根。这就需要我们保持定力、稳定政策。那么有的同志可能会说，这样做是不是不作为了，只要站住不动就行了？那不行，你要不动，就像骑自行车一样，停在那里晃两圈儿，没准儿就摔下来了。所以还得动，要稳中求进，这是中央确定的工作总基调。还必须稳中有为。怎样稳中有为？那就要创新宏观调控思路和方式，根据形势变化，采取有效的、有针对性的措施。我们重点做了这几个方面工作。	The second option is to carry on without expanding the deficit and neither loosen or tighten monetary policy. This requires us to maintain sustainable policies. Some of you will say, does this mean doing nothing and just standing where we are? We can't do that. If you don't move ahead, you will be like a cyclist. If he stops, he will sway several times and may fall off. So we have to move ahead, to move forward while maintaining stability, and that is the fundamental point that has been made by the central government. How can we move ahead while maintaining stability? We need to be innovative in our macroeconomic control, taking effective and focused measures according to the changing situation. To do this, we have focused on the following areas:
第一，深处着力。努力释放改革的巨大红利。同志们还记得，从十八届二中全会到今年全国两会，我们提出简政放权，既要精简机构，更要转变政府职能，这里面大有文章可做。大家都知道，有所谓“两只手”，看不见的是市场的手，看得见的手是政府的手。社会上有人说，政府“看得见的手”变成了“闲不住的手”，干什么事都要去报批。你们可能从电视上看过，有人曾经画了一张叫做审批的“万里长征图”，多的时候要盖一百多个章才能办成一件事，再加上各种检查收费，创业者不堪重负。有一位部长告诉我，说他接到一个投诉信，一个在北京读书的大学生，毕业以后回家，到中部地区的一个小县城，他想自主创业。干什么呢？他觉得这个县城里面要增加点文化氛围，就想办一个书店，从父母和亲属那里借了20多万元，结果跑了三、四个月，盖了几十个公章，总算跑下来。好不容易租了店铺，然后就开始被检查了。有的执法人员进去看，说你这个店玻璃颜色不对，照到街面上光污染，你得改。要办书店的年轻人说我已经没钱了，执法人员说没钱也行，给书吧，就摸了几十本书走了。那他书里是不是有什么“打黄扫非”方面的问题呀？没有。实际上，人家办的是一个社科书店，主要是教材，还真没这方面问题。到最后，这个大学生实在是经不起检查，只好“关门大吉”。我说经不起检查，不是书经不起检查，而是经不起各种人员的反复检查。他一气之下给部长写了封投诉信，部里派人下去查，还果真如此。大家想想看，我们在尽力为各地城镇新增就业、创业创造条件，而各种审批、检查显然把人民群众这种创业的热情给抑制了。所以我们下决心减少行政审批，这半年多来，中央政府下大气力已经取消和下放221项审批事项。简政放权的政策，向社会、向市场释放了一个非常积极的信号，就是鼓励大家就业创业。前两天我要了工商登记机关的数据，今年第三季度，全国新设市场主体同比增长了18%，其中民营企业数量增长了31%，和前些年相比较，呈现一种迸发式的增长，改革的成效是明显的。所以我们把转变政府职能作为改革的突破口。建立中国（上海）自由贸易试验区，其中重要方面也是简政放权，探索负面清单管理模式，政府放开该放的、管住该管的。	Firstly, we have struck deep and have endeavored to release huge dividends from reform. Comrades, you may still remember, from the Second Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee (Feb. 26) to the National People's Congress (Mar. 5-17) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (Mar. 3-12) held this year, we have put forward simplifying governance and decentralizing power. This means both downsizing the government and transforming its functions – and there is huge potential in both areas. As you know, there are the so-called "two hands" – the invisible hand is the market and the visible one is the government. Some people say that the government's "visible hand" has become a "restless hand," because all business has to be approved. You may have seen on the television that someone drew a "Long March Map" of administrative processes, saying that it can take more than 100 official seals to approve a business. On top of that, various inspections and fees have overwhelmed start-up businessmen. One minister told me that he once got a complaint letter, saying that a young man, after he graduated from university in Beijing and returned home, wanted to start his own business in a county town in central China. Considering the various proposals, he chose to open a bookstore in a bid to improve the cultural atmosphere of the county. After borrowing more than 20,000 yuan from his parents and relatives, he spent three or four months getting dozens of papers stamped with official seals, which was necessary to get the license. Not long after he rented a place, inspectors came. A batch of law enforcement officers went in, and said the shop's window glass was the wrong color, as the reflection would cause "light pollution" in the street, and told him to fix it. The young man replied saying he was out of money. The law enforcement officers then offered to take books instead of money, and went away with dozens of books. Did the books contain any adult or illegal content? No. In fact, his was a social science bookstore. Most of his stock was textbooks and he had no problems in this area. Eventually, the graduate could not afford the inspections and chose to close down the store. In my opinion, it was not that his books could not pass the inspections, but that he could not afford to have the inspectors come so frequently. Feeling aggrieved, he wrote a complaint letter, and the ministry sent people to investigate the matter and found that his complaints were true. Think about it. While we are doing our best to create new jobs and facilitate entrepreneurship, numerous approval procedures and inspections are destroying people's enthusiasm for starting their own business. This is why we are determined to simply administrative approval processes. Over the past six months, the central government has put in a huge effort in abolishing or decentralizing 221 administrative approval processes. Simplifying governance and decentralizing power has sent a positive signal to society and the market, which will encourage people to obtain employment or start their own businesses. The other day I checked the business registration authority's data. In the third quarter of this year, the number of new market players increased by 18 percent year-on-year, and private business went up by 31 percent. This is explosive growth compared with previous years, showing that the reform has had a remarkable effect. In light of this, we have taken transforming the government's functions as an entry point for reform. The China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone were established with one vital aim for simplifying governance, decentralizing power and exploring a new approach in negative list management. The government should let go of what should be let go and control what should be controlled.
当然，改革不光是要转变政府职能，我们得想更多办法。因为经济发展总是需要财力的，在财政增收困难的情况下，我们就想办法盘活存量。怎么把存量盘活？我们提出来，要让人民过好日子，政府就要过紧日子。中央有“八项规定”，政府明确提出“约法三章”，要从“三公”经费上“开刀”。今年从中央机关开始做，行政经费砍了5%。这样就腾出来一些钱，干什么？其中一项是给小微企业减税，2万元以下小微企业增值税、营业税免了。涉及到多少人呢？涉及到600万户、上千万就业人员。	Of course, reform means more than transforming government functions. We have to come up with more solutions. As economic development always requires the financing to support it, in times of difficulty, we have to liquidize existing assets. How do we do this? We agree that the government should carry out an austerity plan if we want people to live a comfortable life. The CPC's central authorities have put forward the "eight rules" on frugality, while the government has also drawn up the "three agreements," to cut public expenditures. Central government agencies took the lead and took a 5 percent cut in their administrative expenses. In this way, we have freed up some money. One part of the savings is being used to fund micro and small businesses by giving them tax cuts. Businesses whose revenue is under 20 thousand yuan are exempt from value-added tax and business tax. This involves 6 million businesses with up to 10 million people.
同时，我们还改革投资体制。这次机构改革，把铁道部撤销了，改成了铁路总公司。铁路职工200多万人，为国家、为人民、为乘客做出的贡献是巨大的、不可替代的。但是，由于原来的铁道部是政府组成部门，政企不分，实际上导致融资困难，只能靠财政给钱，靠国家信用去发债，结果这两年铁路建设步伐在放慢。那怎么办？我们国家到现在铁路运营总里程只有10万公里，美国是25-27万公里，如果跟发达国家相比，我们的人均铁路里程很少。应该说，铁路发展特别是中西部地区铁路发展，还有很大的潜力，所以我们下决心把铁道部变成铁路总公司，既实现了政企分开，也使铁路作为企业可以在更大范围内融资，让社会资本进入。当然要保证铁路的运行安全、国家的安全。修铁路是有回报的，有很多社会资本愿意进来，要搭建平台、创造条件，加速铁路在薄弱地区的发展。	At the same time, we have reformed the investment system. During this round of institutional reform, we dissolved the Ministry of Railways, changing it to China Railway Corporation. More than two million people worked on the railways. Their contributions to the country and people are so big they are not replaceable. But as the former Ministry of Railways was a government agency with no clear distinction between the functions of the government and enterprises, it had financing difficulties. It had to rely on state financing and the country's sovereign credit to issue bonds – resulting in a slowdown in railway development in recent years. So what should we do? China's railway mileage is only 100,000 km; by contrast, the United States has 250,000-270,000 km. Our railway mileage per capita is also meager compared with developed countries. It is fairly to say there is still great potential for railway development in China, especially in the central and western regions. This is why we were determined to transform the Ministry of Railways into China Railway Corporation. This has separated the functions of the government and enterprises, and enabled railway authorities to gain finance on a larger scale, effectively letting social capital in. Certainly we have to ensure the safety of railways and that of the country. For the returns on building railways, there is a lot of social capital willing to join in the ventures. We need to build a platform and create the conditions to speed up railway development in less developed regions.
但是，同志们，按照第二种选择来做，也不是说没有压力。在座的大家可能也听说过有所谓的“钱荒”，这就是6月份的时候，银行间的隔夜拆借率曾一下到了13%，那是高得不得了，平常也就是3%多一点。所以当时外界有说法，“中国银行间出现了债务违约、头寸紧张”，这就是所谓“钱荒”。面对这种形势，我们没有心慌，还是坚持这条：既不放松也不收紧银根。但是，坦率地讲，我们心不慌，但也不能不注意。为什么呢？我给大家举个例子。现在网络很发达，有人就把“中国银行间发生资金违约”改了一下，把“间”字划掉了，变成了“中国银行发生资金违约”，并发到网上。大家知道，中国银行是四大国有商业银行之一，而且是我们在全世界布点最多的银行，同时因为时差的原因，我们这边闭市的时候人家那边开市。这一下就议论开了，说“中国金融是不是出问题了”。我们迅速反应，向外界澄清事实。大家要看到，这么点小火星，搞不好就能燃起大火。针对当时的情况，我们一方面要求人民银行和商业银行加强流动性管理，保持适度的货币供应，另一方面并未因此而放松银根，而是合理引导社会预期和企业行为，产生了稳增长效应。如果当时我们放松银根，如果我们多发赤字，那就像古人讲的“抱薪救火”。薪不尽，火不灭，抱着柴火去救火，柴火不用完，火是灭不了的。所以，我们选择坚持稳住财政和货币政策。	But, comrades, this doesn't mean that there will be no pressure if we go with the second option. You may have heard about the so-called "money squeeze" in June. The inter-bank lending rate surged to 13 percent overnight, a remarkable figure bearing in mind that the usual rate is just over 3 percent. At that time, people outside China said that there were "debt defaults and a shortage of cash in the Chinese inter-bank loan system." This was the so-called "money squeeze." Facing this situation, we were not flustered. We neither loosed nor tightened our monetary policy. Yet, frankly, even if we did not get flustered, we had to pay attention to the issue. Why? Let me give you an example. Our communications network is now very developed. Someone just deleted the word "inter" and changed the whole meaning of the sentence "defaults occurred in the Chinese inter-bank market" to "defaults occurred in the Chinese banking market" and spread it online. We all know that the Bank of China is one of the four state-owned commercial banks with the most subsidiaries in the world. As they are in different time zones, banks in China are closed while those on the other side of the world are open. That immediately triggered discussion. "Are there problems in the Chinese financial system?" We responded rapidly by clarifying the facts to the outside world. We need to realize that a single spark can start a major fire. Taking into consideration the overall situation, we asked the People's Bank of China and commercial banks to strengthen their liquidity management and maintained a moderate money supply. In addition, instead of loosening monetary policy, we rationally guided social expectations and enterprise behavior to prompt steady growth. If we had loosened monetary policy or if we had increased the deficit, we could have been accused of the ancient phrase "carrying firewood to put out a fire," -- adopting a wrong measure to save a desperate situation, only to make it worse. Therefore, we have chosen to stick to a steady fiscal and monetary policy.
第二，精准发力。推动经济发展，不光是稳住政策、推进改革、激发市场活力，还要加大结构调整的力度，其中很重要的就是扩大内需。我们出台了一系列刺激居民消费的政策措施，最近就要发4G牌照。现在信息消费、电子商务等发展很快，2012年网络零售交易规模1.3万亿元，今年前三季度交易额已接近去年全年水平，带动了很多人就业。有很多人搞网络销售，就等于是自己开了个小店，而且不用租商铺，成本很低。创业确实是不容易的，但是通过提供各种便利和发展新的商业业态，可以提供更多创业机会。同时，我们还大力发展养老和健康服务业。这方面我们是短缺的。现在说不少产品过剩，要采取措施消化过剩产能，而服务却是相对短缺的。中国的服务业和国外相比差距还很大，就是和与我们同等收入水平的国家相比，服务业占GDP的比重大概也差了10个百分点。据了解，在一些特大城市，要进公立养老院，如果今年50岁开始排队，要排上30年，甚至40年，那就得至少等到80多岁了，这说明养老服务供给很不够。我国人均GDP现在6000多美元，服务业发展的潜力还是很大的，要采取措施加以推动，特别是要破除障碍，吸收社会资本进入。同时要看到，制造业是不能丢的。我们重点加强节能环保这些符合结构升级方向的产业。我们还加大城市棚户区的改造力度，这是惠及民生的项目，其实也是拉动增长的项目。这些年来我们加快了棚户区改造，取得很大成效。但即便如此，现在我国集中连片的各类棚户区、包括城市、工矿以及独立工矿区、林区、垦区棚户区，还居住着大约4000万人，其中70%是退休职工。前不久我到西部地区一个工矿区的棚户区看望职工，碰到一个老职工。我问他，你什么时候来的？他说五六十年代，支援三线建设来的。当时先生产后生活，住的就是个棚子，付出了青春，干了一辈子，结果到老了、退休了，还住在棚户区里面。冬天北方地区煤炉不敢多烧，害怕中毒，晚上不光是盖着棉被，还要穿着棉大衣才能睡觉，几百人合用一个厕所。他跟我说，我现在就一点愿望，能不能我在世的时候住上楼房。所以我们要加快棚户区改造。推进结构调整，实际上也是要缩小东中西部地区差距，缩小城乡之间的差距和破解城市内部二元差距。	Secondly, we must be accurate in exercising our strength. Promoting economic development not only requires us to stabilize policy, promote reform and energize the market, but also to strengthen structural adjustment, a key part of which is to expand domestic demand. We have introduced a series of policies and measures to stimulate consumption. We will be issuing 4G licenses shortly. Information consumption and e-commerce are developing rapidly. Online retail trade reached 1.3 trillion yuan in 2012, while the figure in the first three quarters of this year has already approached last year's total, which has boosted employment. Many people work in online sales. They run a small shop themselves, with no rent and low costs. Entrepreneurship is not easy, but by making things convenient and developing new business formats, we can create more opportunities for entrepreneurship. At the same time, we are taking a great effort to develop pension and health services. We are lacking in this area. We have a large surplus of products and we must take measures to absorb this excess capacity. We are short on services. There is large disparity between China's service industry and those in foreign countries. Even compared with countries at the same income level, we are still behind by about 10 percent in terms of our service industry's contribution to GDP. Apparently, in some large cities, if people start to apply for a space in a state-owned nursing home at the age of 50, they will have to wait for 30 or even 40 years. By that time you are more than 80 years old. This shows the serious lack of supply. China's per capita GDP is now more than US$6,000. Our service industry has great potential for development. We should take measures to encourage this, breaking down barriers and absorbing more social capital. At the same time, we cannot abandon the manufacturing sector. While focusing on strengthening energy-saving and environmentally friendly industries through structural upgrading, we must also quicken our conversion of shanty towns. This will benefit the people's livelihoods, and promoting economic growth. In recent years, we have transformed shanty towns and made great progress. But even so, there are still about 40 million people nationwide living in shanty towns, including those in urban, industrial and mining, forest, and land reclamation areas. 70 percent of shanty town residents are retired workers. Not long ago, I visited workers living in a mining shanty town in Western China and talked to an old retired worker. I asked him when he had moved there. He told me that in the 1950s-1960s, he joined the "Third Front" program. He said that in those days, production came first and living conditions came second. He had worked hard all his life, but still had to live in a shanty town when he retired. Out of fear of carbon monoxide poisoning, his family didn't burn much coal in the stove in winter. When they went to sleep at night, they not only had to cover themselves with quilts, but also keep their daytime clothes on. Several hundred people shared one bathroom. The old man hoped he could move into a proper building. This is why we must speed up our conversion of shanty towns. Encouraging structural adjustment will narrow the gap between east, central and western China, and the urban-rural gap, and the dual system within cities.
第三，扩大开放。中国经过多年的努力，已经成长为世界第二大经济体，应该说这其中我国出口竞争力不断提高功不可没。大家许多人都出过国，到处都能看到“中国制造”。但是当前由于整个世界经济不景气，世贸组织不断调减世界贸易总量和增幅的预测，贸易战也有点风起云涌之势，各国都是为了保护本国的产业和就业。但实际上这个保护是保护落后，最终也是保护不住的。中国作为一个大国，主要还是要依靠内需，但是稳定出口也不可轻视，因为我们现在出口带动的直接就业人数大概3000万人，加上相关的配套产业，带动大概1亿人，如果出口迅速掉下来，就会产生就业问题。所以我们还是要有理有节地开展对外交往，维护国家利益，坚决反对贸易保护主义。大家可能还记得，今年四五月份曾经出现的中欧光伏案，就是欧盟要对中国的光伏产品搞所谓的“双反”。我到欧洲访问时，一路跟他们讲，这样做是损人不利已，而且如果欧盟真的对中国光伏产品实施所谓的“双反”，加47%的惩罚性关税，那么我们的光伏企业在欧洲市场就要全部退出了，我说中国必将采取反制措施。回来以后，我到国内一个最大的光伏企业去调查，企业说，虽然有两个月的谈判缓冲期，但如果两个月后关税水平上升到那么高的话，企业就撑不住了。光伏产业涉及到多少人呢？涉及到40万人就业。而且还不仅仅是40万人就业的问题，这个口子要开了，那一些国家就会没完没了，很多贸易战就会打起来，针对着中国搞制裁。中国的出口总量已经世界第一，我们必须高举反对贸易保护主义的旗，坚决反对“双反”等措施。所以我就在北京跟欧盟的领导人通话，进一步做工作，最终中欧协商解决。	Thirdly, we must open more to the outside world. After years of efforts, China has become the world's second largest economy. The fact that our export industry has become increasingly competitive has played an undeniable part in this. Many Chinese have been abroad, and we can see products labeled "made-in-China" everywhere. However, due to the sluggish global economy, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has continued to reduce its world trade volume and growth forecasts. A trade war has emerged. Every country is to trying to protect its own industries and job market. But this protection is protection of backwardness, which is something that cannot be protected. As a large country, China mainly relies on domestic demand, but exports should also be kept stable, because about 30 million people are employed directly in the export industry, and about 100 million people in related support industries. A rapid drop in exports would cause problems in employment, therefore we should carry out reasonable foreign exchange, safeguard our national interests and oppose trade protectionism. You probably still remember the China-Europe photovoltaic case that emerged in April and May this year. The European Union attempted to conduct a so-called "double reverse investigation" of China's photovoltaic products. During my tour of European countries, I repeatedly said this would harm others and not benefit the EU. Besides, if the EU really carried out the investigation and imposed an additional 47 percent punitive tariff, our photovoltaic companies would have to withdraw completely from the European market. Therefore I said that, China would take countermeasures. After I returned to China, I went to visit the biggest domestic photovoltaic company. I was told that although there was a two-month mitigation period for negotiations, the company would not be able to survive for more than two months if the tariff were imposed. How many people are involved in the photovoltaic industry? More than 400,000. It is not just an employment problem for 400,000 people. Once we set such a precedent, those countries would never stop. Many trade wars will break out aiming at taking sanctions against China. China is number one in the world in terms of export volume. We must hold high the banner of opposing trade protectionism, and oppose the "double-reverse investigation" and other measures. For this reason, I spoke to the EU leaders from Beijing, negotiated with them and solved the problem through consultation.
这次我到泰国访问，我也向他们极力推荐中国的高铁，介绍中国的高铁技术先进、安全可靠、运营有经验。我们的企业走出去，不仅仅是买人家的东西，也要让人家买我们有价值的东西，不仅仅是买中国的服装鞋帽、买一般加工品，也要买我们的制成品特别是中高端的制成品。这方面还是有很大空间可以去做的。	During my recent visit to Thailand, I talked about China's high-speed railway, in particular its leading technology, safety and reliance, and our rich operation experience. In "going out", China's companies should not only buy other people's products, but also sell ours, including ordinary items such as clothes, shoes and hats, as well as our middle-and-high-end products. There is great potential for us in this field.
第四，引导市场预期。虽然做了很多工作，但市场还是有一些不安心的地方，觉得改革措施、简政放权、调整结构是不是今年一定能见得了效啊？再加上国外又出现 “唱空中国”的一种舆论，说中国经济要硬着陆，甚至有些著名经济学家也给出判断，说今年中国经济增幅就会落到3%。我见外宾时，也有人跟我说类似的话。我们不追求高速度，更不片面追求GDP，但是合理的增长速度是需要的，所以我们就确定了经济增长的合理区间。实际上是要引导社会预期。什么合理区间呢？老有人追问我，说这有上限下限，这最终到底是多少啊？那就是GDP按照今年人代会所确定的，增长7.5%左右，作为我们的下限。这直接关系就业。我到一些出口企业去看，在今年一季度最困难的时候，企业告诉我，虽然现在出口订单基本上不增长了，但是企业绝不裁员。我说谢谢你，不光是代表这些员工包括农民工谢谢你，也代表国家谢谢你，希望所有的企业都能这样。大学毕业生是我们国家的宝贵财富。今年大学毕业生699万，是历年来最高的，在这样严峻复杂的经济形势下，怎么保证这699万人就业，我们确定了一个“大学生就业促进计划”。就是毕业后即使一次签约签不成，二次签约也签不成，国家不给你断线，不把你推到社会上不管了，毕业生的就业状况学校要掌握，人力资源和社会保障部门要掌握，而且要提供培训、提供就业指导、提供选择机会。我们有要求，不能有零就业家庭，这方面工会系统也做了大量的工作。我过去在东北工作的时候，到零就业的家庭去看过，真是感到心酸哪，一个家里面几口人待在那里，小伙子大姑娘没有一个有工作，家庭毫无生气，甚至没有希望，所以我们必须要保障。所以我刚才讲的稳增长也是为了保就业，那么我们引导市场预期，确定这个合理区间，就是增长的下限7.5%左右；上限CPI，就是物价上涨不能超过3.5%左右，因为老百姓要过日子，而在我国物价统计方法中，33%即三分之一权重是食品。我们中低收入的群众还相当多，光低保，城镇2000多万，农村5000多万，占整个人口的5%，所以我们向社会发出这个信号，如果经济运行真要滑出这个合理区间，政府就要采取有针对性的措施。但在这个合理区间内，我们还是尽可能地释放改革的最大红利，着力去推进改革，着力去推进结构调整，激发市场活力来培育经济增长的内生动力。这不是说政府没有保持宏观经济稳定的责任，这个责任我们是有的，也是有能力的，我们向世界明确发出这个信号。	Fourthly, we should guide market expectations. We have done a lot of work, but worries remain in the market. Some worry that our reform measures such as efforts to streamline administration and delegate power, and economic restructuring may not pay off this year. In addition, the predictions of the "collapse of China's economy" have reemerged. Some have said that there will be a hard landing for China's economy. Even some well-known economists predicted that China's economic growth will fall to 3 percent this year. Foreign guests have said the same thing to me. Although we are not pursuing high speed growth and are not relying solely on GDP, a reasonable growth rate is still necessary. We will therefore focus on a reasonable range of economic growth, in order to guide market expectation. What is a reasonable range? I have always been asked where the bottom line and the top limit are. Our bottom line is a growth rate of about 7.5 percent, which was set at the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) this year. This figure is directly related to employment. When I visited export firms in the first quarter this year, I was told that they would not lay off employees even during the hardest periods when export orders remained stagnant. I said thank you on behalf of your employees including migrant workers and the government and I hoped all the other firms could do the same. College graduates are the treasures of our nation. The number of college graduates reached 6.99 million this year, a record high. In this complex economic environment, we have introduced the "College Graduates Employment Promotion Plan" in order to safeguard graduate employment. When a graduate fails to sign employment contracts twice in a row, the government will not stand by. Universities and human resources and social security departments should fully understand the employment status of college graduates, and should provide training, employment guidance and opportunities. We also required that there should be no "zero-employment families." The labor unions have done a lot in this regard. When I worked in northeast China, I visited families where nobody was employed. It was heartbreaking to see all the family members including young men and women unemployed and living with little hope. We must provide security for them. The purpose of maintaining reasonable economic growth rate, as I just mentioned, is to guarantee employment. So, in order to guide the market expectation, we proposed "the reasonable range", which means an economic growth rate of about 7.5 percent as the bottom line and a CPI growth of 3.5 percent at most. As food accounts for 33 percent in our price statistics, we have to make sure the price increase is affordable. There are still a lot of people on low to medium incomes. Over 20 million urban residents and more than 50 million rural residents are enrolled in low-income insurance, 5 percent of the entire population. Therefore, the message is clear, if China's economy moves out of the reasonable range, the government will have to take measures; if not, we will unleash more "reform dividends" and continue our reform to make as much progress as possible. In pushing forward reform, we should encourage economic restructuring and stimulate market vitality in order to cultivate an endogenous driving force of economic growth. This is not to say that the government has no responsibility to stabilize the macro-economy. In fact, the government is not only responsible, but also able to do so. We must make this message clear to the outside world.
最近大家都看到了，前三季度经济形势的数据公布了，经济增长从二季度的7.5%提高到了三季度的7.8%，应该说是回升了。CPI有所上涨，9月当月是3.1%，但1-3季度是2.5%，在我们3.5%左右控制的范围之内。更重要的是，前三个季度城镇新增就业超过了1000万人，城镇登记失业率在4.04%。三季度工业用电量增长了9.8%，铁路货运量也增长了7.3%，和经济增长是匹配的。今天我看外电分析，说中国的经济数据看起来不错啊。有些客观的国外经济学家写文章说，中国经济衰落的预言又一次食言了，说中国要硬着陆的人要感到遗憾了。所以说，我们整个经济走势稳中向好，完成全年经济社会发展的主要指标，是有能力也是有条件的。要说信心重要，信心从哪里来？我说最重要的信心是来自于我们伟大的工人阶级，来自于在座同志们所代表的中国亿万职工的勤劳智慧。大家可能还记得，2008年国家金融危机冲击以后，2009年中国经济表现不俗，美国《时代》周刊封面刊登了中国工人照片，其中包括农民工。他们认为中国经济之所以保持这样的增长速度，是中国的工人在支撑着，主要是因为他们勤劳、勤劳、勤劳！没有比这样的工人更勤劳刻苦的了。我跟他们讲，你们还少了一个词，我也和你们重复三遍：智慧、智慧、智慧！	I think you are aware of the economic data released in the first three quarters of this year. The economy grew by 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.8 in the third quarter. In September, CPI grew to 3.1 percent but its average growth rate in the first three quarters stood at 2.5 percent, within the 3.5 percent limit. More importantly, we created more than 10 million jobs in urban areas, and the registered unemployment rate for urban residents was 4.04 percent in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, industrial electricity consumption grew by 9.8 percent, and the railway cargo volume rose by 7.3 percent, which was in line with the overall pace of economic growth. I read the foreign media today, which said that China's economic data looked upbeat. Some foreign economists wrote objectively that the "collapse of China's economy" prediction had been proven wrong once again and those who believed China's economy would have a hard landing would be disappointed. Therefore, China's economy is stable and is on the rise. We have the ability to fulfill our major social and economic development goals this year. Where does our confidence come from? I think it comes mainly from the great working class, from the diligence and wisdom of hundreds of millions of Chinese workers who all of you here represent. You may remember that in 2009, China's economy fared well after the financial crisis in 2008. Photos of Chinese workers including migrant workers appeared on the front cover of Time magazine. They believed that China's high-speed growth was supported by Chinese workers, largely because their diligence, diligence, diligence! They admitted that Chinese workers are the most diligent in the world. But I told them that they forgot another word, which I said to them three times: wisdom, wisdom, wisdom!
当然我们不光是要经济保持平稳运行，也要让社会不断进步，实际上我们在推进社会不断进步当中，也在应对各种挑战，以让经济能够保持平稳运行，包括应对自然灾害方面的挑战。比如说，今年发生了芦山地震，党中央、国务院组织各方力量，及时有力、科学有序地进行救援。我到现场去时，那儿汽车不通了，道路已经封了，但很快就有直升飞机调来，到了震中地区，邻省一些同志已经来了，体现了一方有难、八方支援的精神，省里等方面动作之迅速也说明汶川抗震等经验得到了发挥。在那里，我们做出个决定，救灾要科学有序，由四川省为主指挥抗震救灾，国务院派一个工作组在那儿，由四川省作为需方，我们是供方，他提单子，我们给条件，保证抗震救灾有序进行，使死亡人数降到了最低程度。中央决定对此后类似灾害，都以此机制展开。还有像H7N9禽流感，由于有了过去防非典、防甲流感的经验，也做到了科学有序防控。	Of course, we don't just want to keep the economy stable, but also strive for social progress. In fact, we have tackled an array of challenges in the course of social progress, including natural disasters, in order to maintain economic stability. For example, after an earthquake broke out in Sichuan Province's Lushan County this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council galvanized efforts on all sides to provide disaster relief in a timely, effective, scientific and orderly way. When I arrived there, the road was blocked and vehicles could not get through at all. But soon helicopters arrived at the epicenter and the leadership from neighboring provinces also came, demonstrating the spirit of all sides coming to help when one is struck by disaster. The immediate response of the Sichuan Province also demonstrated that what had been learned from the Wenchuan earthquake had been applied to the full. We made a decision right on the spot: Sichuan would lead the disaster relief efforts while the State Council would assign a work group in support, which would ensure scientific and orderly disaster relief. Sichuan was the demander while we were the supplier -- Sichuan made requests and we met them. The relief work was carried out in an orderly manner and the death toll was kept at the lowest level. The central Party leadership then decided that future disaster relief work should be carried out under the same mechanism. We also controlled the H7N9 flu in a scientific and orderly manner based on our experience in combating SARS and influenza.
我们还着力解决群众关心的问题。像大气污染，我们已经制定了治理大气污染行动计划十条，希望北京3-5年内空气质量有所改变。我们会尽最大力气，坚决治理那些污染源，当然要有个过程。我们也加大了食品药品安全监管的力度。这次机构改革，专门成立了食品药品监管总局，过去多个部门管的，进行了整合，尽力改变九龙治水、三个和尚挑水最后又没水吃的局面。我们还从婴儿奶粉入手，把婴儿奶粉当药品管，用药品监管的方式来监管婴儿奶粉，保证奶粉安全。总之，我们既要推动经济社会发展，还要推动经济社会协调发展，这样才能够保证中国经济长期增长、持续健康发展。	We have also spared no effort to solve problems that the people are concerned about. Take air pollution as an example. We have produced the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control, attempting to improve Beijing's air quality in three to five years. We will make great efforts to deal with the sources of pollution, but of course it will take some time. We have also intensified our efforts to supervise drug and food safety. The China Food and Drug Administration was set up during the cabinet reshuffle earlier this year, integrating the work done by several departments in the past and rectifying previously undefined obligations and responsibilities. We also dealt with the baby milk powder issue. We supervised the way we do with medicine, to ensure its safety. We have not only encouraged economic and social development, but have also coordinated the two. Only in this way can we ensure long-term, sustainable and healthy economic growth.