What should we expect apart from football this weekend?
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This weekend, June 26 and 27, the G20 will be held in Toronto, Canada. Comparing it with the FIFA 2010 World Cup in South Africa, it might be called the "World Cup" of the international political stage, and it will attract nearly as much attention as the football.
After all, there are many pressing world issues that need discussion and settlement; the European Debt Crisis, the future of economic recovery plans, yuan appreciation, and so on. In this sense, the meeting is highly anticipated. As for its outcomes, what we are likely to see is more bargaining between leaders on the post-crisis path, talks on how rich and emerging countries can cooperate, and the usual condemnations of protectionism. Of course, there will be other things going on behind the scenes because this political "World Cup" never has only one focus.
However, even on this brief range of subjects, there will be a huge gap between expectations and reality. It is an open question how effective the meeting will be. The gap between outcomes and expectations needs to be addressed by both the rich and emerging countries.
But reality and expectations are forever interacting and evolving. The best we can expect from the G20 meeting is that it sets out a direction for the future. What it needs to do above all is to institutionalize cooperation. If it fails, trade protectionism, for example, will be rejected in theory but not in practice, as was the case after the last meeting. That would leave the G20 as little more than a global party for politicians.
Another focus is on the role of the main countries. Just like the World Cup, the G20 meeting has its top seeds. Some countries play the key roles; others are supporting actors or even lowly spear carriers. The big difference this time is that the two top seeds in Toronto this weekend are China and the United States, a fact that will not be formally acknowledged but tacitly agreed by all.
The United States is accustomed to playing the leading role. But China isn't. What the two countries have in common is not power and authority, but the ability to act as representatives of a new and better way of managing world development.
However, what we should look out for is not so much how the seeds work together but whether the decision-making characteristics of the G20 meeting are effective or not. The expectation is that the G20 meeting will have the ability to reach agreement on new policies and, what is more important, carry them out. Only in this way can reality meet expectations.
The G20 needs to not only set out solutions to global issues, but also needs to give people confidence in its effectiveness. Institutionalization of decision making will give the world the answers it is looking for. If the G20 can manage this, the widening gap between its aspirations and capabilities will be bridged, and global problems will cease to be problems.
The author is Ph.D candidate of International Politics, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University.
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