The call of East Asia Summit
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The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the ASEAN Regional Forum are the two main mechanisms that the US can "participate in and control" to exert its influence on the East Asian cooperation process. But in recent years the US' presence has been nominal and Russia has had a limited influence in the region. True, Moscow is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but the organization's purpose and functions have nothing to do with East Asian cooperation. So, the US and Russia can achieve their goals only by joining the EAS.
The participation of the US and Russia will further complicate the Oct 30 summit, which not only will turn from a "10+6" to a "10+8" group, but also cover more subjects, including regional security.
The US is likely to use the EAS to "reaffirm its leading role in Asia" and continue to pursue its Asian strategy on the basis of "multilateral mechanism", advocate its so-called universal values, try to make ASEAN part of its alliance and continue to put pressure on China on the South China Sea disputes.
Japan will continue to blame China for the territorial disputes, fall back on the US, cozy up to ASEAN and try to stir a storm over "China's expansionism" and "Chinese hegemony". Plus, it will use the EAS to defend the mistakes it has committed for lack of political wisdom.
ASEAN will keep playing a leading role in all new regional cooperation mechanisms. And some Southeast Asian states may try to seek support from the US on the South China Sea disputes.
China and Russia cooperate with each other on many international issues. So, the two countries are likely to support each other and coordinate at the Hanoi summit.
The US Democratic Party is likely to lose the midterm elections and the Obama administration has trouble even taking care of itself. So even if the US is more than willing to lead Asia, it lacks the power to do so. The US cannot promise to meet ASEAN's demand for a free trade area and cannot give substantive assistance to some countries that have territorial disputes with China. The US cannot get directly involved in the Diaoyu Islands dispute between China and Japan either, and ASEAN members are unlikely to echo Japan's unreasonable demand.
A fast developing China is the guarantee of stability in East Asia. Therefore, China should maintain its calm and confidence at the Hanoi summit. It should emphasize the inclusiveness of cooperation in East Asia, voice its support openly for the US and Russia to join the summit, emphasize the leading role of ASEAN in the evolution of the regional structure, reaffirm its determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, refrain from talking about any dispute and not over-react to any challenge thrown by the US, Japan or any other country.
The author is research scholar and deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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