China neutral on Korean issue
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Almost two weeks have passed since the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) exchanged fire. Now the US is trying to exert more pressure on China to "rein in" the DPRK. It is even accusing China of "enabling" the DPRK to start a uranium-enrichment program and launch attacks on the ROK.
A Japanese newspaper reported on Monday that Japan would identify the DPRK as a threat and China's military activities a concern in its National Defense Program Guideline update.
Top diplomats from the ROK and Japan are headed for Washington for trilateral talks on Monday, meaning that the three countries are laying aside the possibility of Six-Party Talks and trying to solve the problem through their one-sided plan. This reflects a policy change for the three countries after assuming the DPRK has indeed nuclear weapons.
China should be alert to the ongoing Korean Peninsula crisis. It's the first time the ROK, Japan and the US that have trilateral military cooperation. The US now is strengthening its military presence in East Asia by portraying China as the DPRK's "ally".
The situation on the peninsula is worrying and becoming more complicated, as the untoward exchange of fire, together with the Cheonan incident in March, has brought about deep structural changes on the Korean Peninsula.
Most striking is the change in the ROK's internal politics, where the "sunshine policy" has lost public support. When Lee Myung-bak, who is opposed to the "sunshine policy", won the general election in the ROK in 2007, many people considered it to be a somewhat usual political cycle. But after the two incidents most people in the ROK considered the "sunshine policy" a failure that could not alter the zero-sum-game between Pyongyang and Seoul.
According to an opinion poll, about 70 percent of the people in the ROK now support a tough policy toward the DPRK, and some political figures who earlier favored the "sunshine policy" have changed their stance. The "Cold War" atmosphere seems to have returned to the country.
With both sides sticking to their tough policies, the danger of confrontation has increased greatly. In the past, the DPRK threatened to launch a "total war", "nuclear war" or "set Seoul on fire" to vent its anger at the way it had been treated by the ROK, the US and Japan, while the ROK insisted on giving a tit-for-tat reply. But this time, the situation seems to be different. The ROK has changed its defense secretary and adopted a new policy of revenge. The joint ROK-US military exercise immediately after the exchange of fire is a silent testimony to Seoul's determination.
It's true, neither side wants a war, but with little buffer space for leaders of the DPRK and the ROK, the danger of a military conflict is increasing.
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