Inflation clouds won't dim bright economic future
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Peng: Last December, housing sales prices in 70 big and middle cities rose 6.4 percent compared with same period of 2009, which was 1.3 percentage points less than November's growth, while month-to-month growth was 0.3 percent.
Real estate prices are still rising. The excessive growth of house prices must be stopped.
In the past, we used to emphasize short-term policy regulation and often neglected long-term reform. We need to change that.
PD: The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized that a prudent monetary policy and an active fiscal policy would be implemented this year. What are the main characteristics of China's macro-control this year?
Peng: This year, macroeconomic regulation needs first to manage inflation expectations. Real estate regulation should reduce rather than increase economic volatility. Housing prices need to be controlled at a reasonable level. Any form of real estate regulation should take the goal of curbing real estate bubbles and preventing excessive economic fluctuations.
Ba: The long-term goal of macroeconomic control is to guide the economy into balanced and moderate growth. Based on current trend, according to year-on-year and month-to-month growth rate, GDP growth in 2011 will be more moderate than in 2010, which had big fluctuations of quarter-to-quarter growth.
The third quarter might be the peak of year-on-year growth, which may be slightly over 10 percent. The economy will see a slight decline in the fourth quarter.
This year's macroeconomic regulation and control should pay special attention to some new features during economic operation.
Given the strong growth of the fourth quarter in 2010, the possibility of an overheated economy in a particular quarter cannot be ignored. One of the driving forces is that 2011 is the year linking "the 11th Five-Year Plan" and "the 12th Five-Year Plan."
According to our 30 years experience of reform and opening-up, there might be very strong cyclical expansion impulse. External economic factors such as the US recovery might generate driving forces that exceed current expectations. The intensity of current deflation measures is quite limited and actually behind price movements. The strength and pace of deflation is slightly lagging behind.
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