What troops pullout means to Kabul
- By Hu Shisheng
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China Daily, July 21, 2011
The Taliban, on their part, are intensifying their offense plans to gain more chips at future political negotiations. During this year and the next, the US' Afghan strategy will be marked by "troops withdrawal, and combating and holding talks with the Taliban" - and the Afghan security situation will continue to deteriorate.
On the economic front, Afghanistan is likely to face more serious economic difficulties after the withdrawal of US troops. More than 30 years of warfare has all but paralyzed the Afghan economy. After the US launched its "war on terror", an increasing number of Afghans have come to depend on doing business with and provide related services to foreign forces in Afghanistan to make a living, resulting in a foreign military service-oriented economy.
Moreover, about 90 percent of the Karzai government's budget comes from the US' aid. But after the withdrawal of US troops, it would be hard for Washington to allocate about $100 billion a year for anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan.
The fear of further deterioration in the Afghan situation after the NATO troops' pullout has made foreign companies reluctant to invest in the country, and without foreign investment, the Karzai government's ambitious mining and agricultural development programs cannot move even a step further.
On the political front, the stability of the Karzai government will encounter increasingly greater opposition from three forces. The Taliban are by far the most powerful opposition force, for they not only oppose the secular Karzai government, but also accuse it of being a "puppet regime" installed by the US. In fact, the Taliban have intensified attacks on senior officials of the Afghan government and military. Two assassinations in less than a week are proof of that.
The second and third largest opposition forces are tribal elders and warlords, none of whom want to see the central government expand its power. In this context, the Karzai government cannot look forward to maintaining its governance by relying only on the Afghan security forces, which are weak both in terms of national identity and combat efficiency.
On the regional strategic level, major regional powers will use the US troops' withdrawal to fill the vacuum in geographically and strategically important Afghanistan, which will further complicate the Afghan political landscape.
The US troops' pullout cannot solve the deep-rooted problems in Afghanistan and the region. Instead, it may give rise to very difficult political and strategic problems.
The author is director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asia and Oceania Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
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