Too early to draw conclusions
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China Daily, August 26, 2011
Electronic or network warfare began to "dominate" the battlefield during the Iraq War and it has had an equally important role in NATO's military operations in Libya.
On the outbreak of the Libyan civil war, the Cyber Security Forum Initiative, a US-based organization specializing in cyber security/warfare, proposed Project Cyber Dawn, suggesting the US infiltrate Libyan cyberspace to incite the Libyan people to insurrection, as the previous "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunisia had "demonstrated to the world the capacity for abrupt change and the use of the Internet as a powerful agent in that pursuit".
The project outlined ways the US could utilize the Stuxnet worm to sabotage the supervisory control and data acquisition systems of Libyan oil refineries to disrupt their production. However, the Gadhafi regime cut off Internet access at the start of the war and the oil refineries soon suspended operations and the project was never implemented.
Despite that, the use of surveillance aircraft and drones, which can work around the clock to identify targets and intercept enemies, has enabled NATO to make precision strikes and inflict huge losses on Gadhafi's forces. Besides surveillance, the drones are also equipped with air-to-ground missiles and one of Gadhafi's sons and several of his grandchildren were killed in a drone strike.
Confronted with NATO's aggressive attacks, Gadhafi has had to come up with a new strategy. Perhaps, the current plight reminded him of his idol - former Egyptian president Gamal Abdul Nasser. In the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Nasser, then a young military officer, was trapped in the Falluja pocket by Israeli forces. With supplies cut off and running short of ammunition, Nasser refused to surrender. It was not until Arab countries and Israel ceased fire that Nasser returned to Egypt.
Starting from late August, Gadhafi has switched to "pockets of resistance" - luring the opposition forces into Tripoli and launching street battles. NATO military sources have admitted that the urban environment in Tripoli, a city of about 2 million people, is "far more complex for airstrikes than past targets have been" and indiscriminate strikes would be morally unacceptable to the international community.
On Aug 23, it was reported that Bab al-Azizyah, Gadhafi's compound, was occupied by opposition fighters, although the transitional government took it as a positive sign, analysts seem less optimistic, because Gadhafi's whereabouts remain unknown, and the transitional government has proven to be untrustworthy with regard to the information it releases, as shown by its announcement of the capture of Gadhafi's son Seif al-Islam, who showed up several hours later to disprove the reports.
When the opposition forces marched in to Tripoli, people asserted that Gadhafi would be captured or killed or else he would surrender. But there is a fourth possibility: that Gadhafi will keep fighting to the bitter end, and use Tripoli's labyrinth-like tunnels to his advantage. Should the opposition forces someday retreat from Tripoli, Gadhafi would be able to stage a comeback and secure his long-craved wish for honor comparable to Nasser's.
For the time being, the Libyan civil war appears to be coming to an end, but it is still too early to draw any final conclusion.
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