Since last month, The Philippines has made a series of farces around the issue of the Huangyan Island. It seems that it is the frictions between China and the Philippines but anyone knows that there is a shadow of the United States between the two countries.
More surprisingly, Philippine President made a public speech among the leaders of the allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region for the first time and said that China will not use force due to the existence of the United States. The Philippine Foreign Minister said recently that the United States will protect The Philippines from any attacks in the South China Sea. An important fact that people cannot ignore is that the United States also bear tremendous pressure and confusion not because there are great interests in it but it is nagged by the so-called "credibility".
In nearly 70 years since the end of the Second World War, the United States established a global military alliance network. Providing military bases, logistical support in wartime and military action for the United States, these allies have become an important pillar of the global domination strategy of the United States. The eternal problem for all the presidents and strategists of the United States is how to maintain the alliance network. In their view, it will cause suspicion of the allies to the credibility of the United States if the United States cannot timely protect its allies at the military conflicts. This is the greatest threat to the network.
The logic seems very reasonable but the problem is that the psychology of "alliance first" is likely to be exploited by some reckless allies who have their own selfish interests and involve the United States in unnecessary conflicts and even wars. The United States has received many heavy lessons in the Cold War. In the early 1950s, as what the Secretary of the U.S. Department of State John Foster Dulles had said that one of the reasons why the United States was involved in the Korean War is the "credibility." President Johnson had the same logic 15 years later and he said that the allies will suspect the commitment of the United States if the States let the destiny of Vietnam go unchecked.
It can be clearly seen that the logic of the United States is that it must show credibility to prevent its allies to abandon the treaty of alliance, even if it might be involved in a costly war. In terms of the current situation in the Huangyan Island, isn’t the Philippines challenging the bottom line of the United States?
The key of the problem does not lie in how the United States to weigh gains and losses in the plight of its allies but in that it must give up the way of thinking during the Cold War and think more about the moral factors in the "credibility." The surrealist behavior of valuing the allies but ignoring the reasonability and legality of the requirements of the allies is behind the times in the post-Cold War period.
The "credibility" of the United States should be a higher level credibility beyond the bilateral security framework. It should be consistent with international law, international conventions and international norms, be conducive to a peaceful solution of problems and be in favor of the relaxation of tensions. Such credibility is vital and sustainable.
A narrow thinking of credibility will only limit the strategic thinking of the United States and lead to wrong judgments and even unpredictable serious consequences, which will undoubtedly be a lose-lose outcome to the United States. Only by containing the radical words and unreasonable demands of the allies can the United States harvest long-term strategic interests.
The United States has declared that it will not stand by any sides on the issue of the South China Sea. It is a positive signal and the United States should not be nagged by the so-called "credibility" and release wrong messages to its allies.
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