Afghanistan provides dilemma for NATO
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E-mail Xinhua, May 19, 2012
Leaders from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries are convening in Chicago this weekend to discuss a variety of issues affecting the alliance's future, with no other agenda item weighing more heavily on the leaders' minds than Afghanistan.
The leaders have to decide on the balance of preserving the fragile achievement in that country while facing increasing pressure of defense cuts and anti-war sentiment back home.
U.S. aims high
As host of the summit, the U.S. side has high aims for the outcome.
According to Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, the United States anticipates three results regarding Afghanistan from the summit, including an agreement on an interim milestone in 2013 when the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) mission will shift from combat to support for the Afghan national security forces; an agreement on the size, cost and sustainment of the Afghan forces beyond 2014; and a roadmap for NATO's post-2014 role in Afghanistan.
The U.S. aim is in line with NATO's goals. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen considers a long-term strategic partnership with Afghanistan to be a high-level goal.
In a recent Congressional testimony, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe James Stavridis also said "everything I can see around the circuit on the NATO side indicates a strong willingness to go forward, and I believe we will have an enduring partnership between NATO and the republic of Afghanistan."
The U.S. side has already made headways toward such a partnership. President Barack Obama visited Kabul earlier this month to sign a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, committing U.S. help for Kabul until 2024, and at the same time securing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014, when NATO is scheduled to transfer security responsibility to the Afghans.
"What I am hoping to see is a commitment to resourcing the Afghan national security forces post-2014," Stavridis said during a recent media interview of the May 20-21 summit, which will include the 28 NATO heads of state and government representatives from many of the 50 nations that make up the ISAF.
Paraag Shukla, senior research analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told Xinhua in an interview that in signing the agreement prior to the Chicago summit, the United States "sets up a framework in which we can engage our international partners to also provide their own firm commitment to Afghanistan."
Allies support in doubt
But allies may not be able to follow the U.S. lead. Debt-ridden European countries are facing huge pressure to cut back on spending. Defense, as well as support for Afghanistan is a tempting target, which could at the same time boost politicians' standing at home given the popular sentiment against the war in Europe.
The first sign the leaders could give would be how fast they will pull back their troops. NATO has about 130,000 troops in Afghanistan, and 90,000 of them are from the United States. The U.S. side want allies to schedule their drawdown in a phased manner, and Germany and Spain have already indicated their willingness to do so.
But Australia has already said it will accelerate the drawdown, and complete the mission by end of 2013, a year ahead of NATO schedule. France is also proving to be problematic, as its new President Francois Hollande vowed to bring troops home by end of this year during campaign.
However, Stephen Flanagan, a security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said people close to the Hollande team told him the new French leader might not want trouble in his first summit with allies, and could come up with a more tempered statement in Chicago.
However, Hollande, who is attending the G8 summit at Camp David, told Obama that he will stand by his campaign pledge, and U.S. officials expressed hope that France will help NATO mission in other ways, should they choose to withdraw earlier than other allies.
With NATO's troops out of Afghanistan, the burden of security will fall on the shoulders of Afghan National Security Forces. According to plans, Afghan security forces will be made up of 225,000 men, with an annual budget of 4 billion U.S. dollars, roughly what the United States spends now in Afghanistan every 12 days.
Flanagan predicted that the U.S. side could pick up about a quarter to half of the price tag, but the rest of the burden will have to fall on the allies.
Luke Coffey, a security expert with the Heritage Foundation, said the allies may not be able to resolve the future funding issue in Chicago. Instead, they may pave the way to solve it at an international conference on Afghanistan in summer in Tokyo, Japan.
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