Will Russia’s return deepen rift within ASEAN?
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E-mail People's Daily, August 2, 2012
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Cam Ranh Bay [File Photo] |
At the end of July, Vietnam promised it will provide Russia with the Cam Ranh Bay as a material and technical support station, and it said that it will strengthen bilateral military cooperation.
Due to the important strategic position of Cam Ranh Bay and the history of its contention of the United States and Russia, the statement immediately attracted great concern. At the same time, due to the recent disputes in the South China Sea issue, many people think that Vietnam's move means an attempt to contain China.
In recent years, with recovery of strength, Russia began to re-expand its military present globally. In order to expand its influence in Southeast Asia, Russia is in urgent need of a fine naval port like Cam Ranh Bay. The Vietnamese side also hopes to step up bilateral military cooperation, to improve their strength.
It is worth noting that in recent years, Vietnam has become the world's second largest importer of Russian weapons. Qu Jianwen, vice president of Institute of International Relations in Yunnan University, ,said, for Vietnam, drawing Russia that has a close relationship with China to its side will make have some scruples in dealing with the South China Sea issue; on the other hand, it also helps it get “leader position” in Indochina and ASEAN.
Facing the contention of the Cam Ranh Bay between the United States and Russia, Vietnam, used to take an ambiguous policy, and won olive branches from both the United States and Russia. Hillary Clinton once publicly supported Vietnam and other countries to “challenge” China in the South China Sea issue.
The permission to use Cam Ranh Bay again means Russia gains a foothold to expand its influence in Southeast Asia; the Russian military analyst believed this may cause U.S. dissatisfaction and suspicion toward Russia policies. As a result, the U.S. -Russia, U.S. -Vietnam relations will be affected.
On the other hand, former Soviet Union had once backed Vietnam to practice hegenomism on the Central South Peninsula. So the return of Russia is inevitable cause psychological impact on the Southeast Asian countries. Qu Jianwen believes the move will intensify the split with the ASEAN, and some countries may take countermeasures to contain Vietnam’s attempt to "take the lead" in the ASEAN. ASEAN will once again fall into troubled times.
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