The annual central economic work conference is expected to be held in Beijing in mid-December. This year's conference has drawn world-wide attention, particularly due to the recent election of the next generation of leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Qu Zi, a senior commentator with www.opinion.china.com.cn, expressed his views on people's high expectations for this year's central economic work conference in an article published on Dec. 13.

Qu said the past 10 years China has witnessed stable leadership, so the significance of the "unexpectedly" complete reshuffle of CPC top leaders has far exceeded that of the US presidential election.

While more and more Chinese people following the US presidential election, which took place on November 7, the American media was equally dominated by the reports of the opening of the 18th CPC National Congress on the next day, Qu said.

China's GDP currently ranks second in the world and is estimated to surpass the US in 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics.

Qu predicted that both China and the world will face lots of uncertainties in economic development next year, but China would certainly continue its reforms. "Probably, China's economy will fluctuate, or continuously go down next year, but [reforms] will definitely enable its GDP to rank first in the world sooner," Qu said.

Five reasons have contributed to high expectations for China's GDP as the conference approaches, Qu analyzed.

First, the central Politburo meeting held on Dec. 4 set the tone for next year's macroeconomic policy and impending reforms, which are closely linked. "Reform has given China the biggest bonus in the past 30-odd years," said Premier Li Keqiang at the meeting. Earlier at a non-Party forum held in Beijing, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping said "Empty talk won't help. Only solid work can rejuvenate a nation."

Furthermore, Xi stressed the point of governing the nation according to law. "All acts in violation of the Constitution and laws must be investigated," he said. People hope more powerful policies [can be] issued to deal with the so-called 'privileged people.' "

Second, while meeting with the media after the first plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on Nov. 15, Xi stressed anti-bureaucratism and anti-corruption. "The whole Party must stay on full alert. To address these problems, we must first of all conduct ourselves honorably," Xi said. "Anti-corruption may not directly promote economic growth, but non-anticorruption must damage economic growth."

Several high-ranking officials have been investigated and dealt with since the 18th CPC National Congress, including Lei Zhengfu, Li Chuncheng, Sun Dejiang, Li Yali and Shan Zengde. The forthcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to issue more polices to deal with corruption and give people more confidence in investing future market economy.

Third, during a ministerial-level forum held on Nov. 22, Premier Li Keqiang said China's economic reform has entered the stage of "tackling the most difficult problem." "We may make mistakes, but we must bear the historical responsibility," he said. The 'difficult problem' is that future reforms might "offend" those groups with vested interests. The reforms involve the national income distribution system, farmers' collective land requisition system, household registration system, interest rate control system, bank credit system and the investment and financing system.

Fourthly, the stock market most directly reflects people's confidence. People's confidence in the future and investors' expectations on future earnings depend on the determination of the central government to implement reforms, rather than on how much GDP grows.

Finally, the newly elected CPC leadership has won acclaim over the past two months, with some even calling it the "dream team". People in Hong Kong are more confident of the policy of "one country, two systems", while the dogma of "Hong Kong Independence" is very much disheartened. This year marks the 20th anniversary of late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping's southern tour to Shenzhen and the cities of Zhuhai, Foshan and Guangzhou and his speech on the tour. A more difficult, more significant reform has finally started again.

(The original article was published on www.opinion.china.com.cn in Chinese and was translated by Li Jingrong.)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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