Syrian uncertainty deepens
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 22, 2013
The confusion on the government side is matched by that on the rebel side with men fighting for entirely conflicting objectives; it is now only matter of time before they turn on each other. The global jihadist elements pose a serious danger to liberal forces dreaming of a new dawn by removing Assad. The two broad factions are united in their hatred for Assad and if he is removed, they will eventually fight each other. This phenomenon has been seen in many places, including Afghanistan where jihadis fighting the Russian forces in the 1980s turned the guns on each other after Moscow's withdrawal.
The regional differences over Syria add to the domestic complexities in the war-torn country. Lately, Iran has announced to take up the role of peacemaker when new President Hassan Rouhani in a Washington Post article explained how his country wanted to see an end put to the Syrian conflict. His assertion on the eve of the UN General Assembly annual meeting is more aimed at appeasing the U.S. than any real progress in Syria. Nonetheless, Iran should bear in mind that their every move will be countered by Saudi Arabia, which considers Syria a legitimate national security issue.
International rivalry makes up the third key component of the Syrian issue. There was a temporary silence due to the patch up between Washington and Moscow over chemical weaponry, but the rivalry is far from over. Fresh problems are bound to follow and the destruction of these lethal arsenals will give the international community a real headache. Assad has already said that there is no quick fix for the problem and it may take at least one year for all weapons of mass destruction to be dismantled. Time is only one dimension of the problems; the other is the financial aspect.
The Syrian leader has stated that the entire destruction of his arsenal could cost as much as US$1 billion, a tall figure by any standards. And it is not sure who will foot the bill at the end of the day. Syria, with its economy in ruins, cannot pay for anything, and any move to force Assad to meet the costs of destruction will further burden the already war-weary people.
The Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will carry out the onerous job of eliminating Syria's chemical weapons, which will join the group next month to become the 190th nation to sign the international agreement to not develop or possess the lethal armory. It is feared that new tensions may sprout regarding the inventory which Damascus will hand over to OPCW officials. The inspectors will verify the information, location and number of weapons before removing them and starting the process of destruction.
Damascus surrendering the chemical weapons will not mean the end to all problems. We see trouble looming as French President Francois Hollande said during a visit to Mali that his country was ready to arm the Free Syrian Army rebels in their fight against government forces. He justified the move by saying the Russia was providing arms to the Syrian government. This will create further uncertainty as forces sympathetic to al-Qaeda linked groups will also try to arm the Islamic factions, whereas Assad's supporters will ship more dangerous weapons to help him control the insurgents.
With so many players and stakeholders, one wonders where the conflict will lead this once thriving Arab country.
The writer is a senior Pakistani journalist and columnist.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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