Biden pivots east
- By An Gang
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E-mail Beijing Review, November 26, 2013
The global macro-economic situation has eased up recently, with developed countries like the United States beginning an economic recovery. But risks still exist. China doesn't worry much about the United States' default risk as it has passed through its fiscal budget and debt crises. But it still has deep concerns about the timing of U.S. quitting the quantitative easing policy, as well as the barriers that Chinese enterprises and investors might meet with in the United States.
To China, economic reform measures confirmed in the just-concluded plenary sessions bring big pressure of enlarging opening-up. China is accelerating to push forward new international trade framework agreement to protect its foreign trade as well as introducing external competition, so as to boost its domestic economic structure adjustment and systematic reform. And bilateral investment agreement negotiation with the United States will play a big role in China's roadmap. China agreed to restart the negotiation based on post-establishment national treatment and negative list during the fifth round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue in early July. However, it will take bilateral efforts and high-level determination before making practical progress.
Asia-Pacific points
Another inevitable task for Biden is how to communicate with the Chinese side on Washington's Asia-Pacific strategic adjustment.
The United States is reacting to the changing Asia-Pacific situation with a complicated approach. It intends to prevent its strategic and security interests in the region from being excluded by implementing policies like "pivot to Asia" and "strategic rebalance." Distracted by messy domestic political and economic conflicts, however, the Obama administration has paid less attention to the "rebalance" in the president's second term. Observers said one of the major targets of Biden's Asian visit is to reiterate Washington's strategic adjustment of "rebalance," so as to make up the regretful cancellation of Obama's planned visit to Asia in October due to the government shutdown triggered by domestic budget and debt crisis.
Although Washington repeatedly declared its promises such as welcoming China's rise, no intention to deter China, among others, its strategic adjustment in the Asia-Pacific region brings significant suspicion and dissatisfaction in China. Many Chinese officials and people believe that the United States is building a military presence targeted at China by allying with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, Viet Nam and India, while military competition between the two sides in the West Pacific has never stopped.
Biden's scheduled visit is expected to ease tension between the two sides. China and the United States have repeatedly confirmed that confrontation and conflict in the Asia-Pacific region are destructive to both sides' interests. The two countries will make positive signals to the world if they can reach consensus on strengthening cooperation in the region.
In addition, Japan poses another obstacle to mutual trust between China and the United States. Tension between China and Japan due to territorial and historical issues is in danger of escalation due to Japan's continuous provocation, which poses a great challenge to regional security. Washington does not want to be directly involved in a dispute between China and Japan, or to be forced to make a choice because of a possible conflict between them.
To China, despite Washington's insistence that does not hold a stance on the Diaoyu Islands issue, it actually takes a biased stance on the Japanese side. The United States admits Japan's administrative jurisdiction on the islands, and indulges Japan to push forward a constitution amendment targeting at challenging the success of World War II, so as to encourage Japan to strengthen coordinative ability to U.S. military implementation in the region, and to contain China's growing influence in the region.
Washington's attitudes to China and Japan thus become China's substantial scale of measuring the real intention of its Asia-Pacific strategy. It is impossible to bypass Tokyo to coordinate Beijing and Washington's interests in the region. China should seize the opportunity of Biden's scheduled visit to conduct a frank communication on the Japan issue.
Bilateral communication and interaction has reached a zenith of bilateral relations since Obama's presidency. Good personal relations between high-ranking Chinese and U.S. leaders have become a highlight, playing an important role on promoting bilateral cooperation and relaxing disputes between them. However, the two sides still need to perseveringly conduct dialogue and cooperation at different levels, and work to solve structural problems that hinder the two sides from building a new pattern of relations between great powers. Both Beijing and Washington are aware of this. And they will illustrate their respective ideas and approaches during Biden's scheduled visit.
The author is an op-ed contributor to Beijing Review.
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