The US taper decision won't destabilize the Chinese economy
- By Lan Xinzhen
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E-mail Beijing Review, January 22, 2014
He gives two reasons why China need not fear the tapering of the QE program. Firstly, it's a mild and gradual exit. Right now, asset purchasing has been cut by only $10 billion a month. This is a decision made after factoring in uncertainties in the U.S. and global economies and fully weighing the impact. Even if the U.S. economy takes an upward swing and economic data meet the required targets, the QE exit will still be mild, He claims.
Secondly, there will be intervals between each cut. Even with rosy economic conditions, the Fed will end QE by the end of 2014 at the current pace of cutting $10 billion each month. Considering downward trends and other uncertainties in the U.S. and global economies, it's likely that the Fed won't entirely exit from QE in 2014, He predicted.
China's economic growth rate bottomed out in the second half of 2013 and has stayed between 7 to 8 percent, which represents a positive growth trend. China doesn't need massive capital inflow to shore up economic growth, as that kind of growth pattern will bring with it a host of uncertainties, He said.
Wang Yong, a research fellow with CITIC Securities, claims the QE exit will result in an outflow of hot money from the Chinese market.
"If the capital flow reversal happens too fast, it may cause a cash crunch in China's capital markets. This will be the biggest impact on the Chinese economy," Wang said. "Even in that case, the stability of China's economic growth won't be compromised as China has hefty foreign exchange reserves that can cushion the impact of any market turbulence."
Cooling inflation
Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications, said the QE exit signals a gradual recovery of the world's largest economy, which is bound to reinvigorate economies worldwide, including the Chinese economy.
"Hot money outflow from China triggered by the QE exit may be a blessing in disguise when it comes to the long-term health of the Chinese economy," Lian said.
Hot money outflow can soothe the appreciation pressure on the yuan, thus improving the competitiveness of Chinese exports and offering new growth momentum to the country, Lian said. "Also, the QE exit will ease pressure on the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, mitigate inflationary pressure caused by excessive monetary supply and therefore leave room for the central authorities to carry out macro-control measures."
Professor He claimed the Fed's monetary policy has always prioritized maintaining a stable economic growth trend, and the Fed will continue to do so in the future.
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