The 'quasi-Cold War' between China and Japan
- By Zheng Yongnian
0 Comment(s)
Print
E-mail China.org.cn, February 22, 2014
Japan's normalization will impact the United States
The Cold War ended in the early 1990s with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But in Asia, the war-related disputes between China (and South Korea) and Japan which failed to be solved during the Cold War have since been frequently put on the table due to various factors.
Today, Japan wants to be a normal country. Instead of correctly facing history, it aims at glorifying its war history. Based on this, it is strengthening its national defense, military and diplomacy. It wants to become a power independent from the United States and attain a status equal to the United States.
Japan's normalization also is a reaction to China's rise and to the relative American decline, with a fear that the United States won't be able to protect it in the future and it must rely on its own efforts.
This is bound to have a huge impact in Asian patterns of power. China and South Korea may have to face a normalized and powerful Japan, even a Japan with nuclear weapons in the future. But the impact on the United States will be greater.
Once Japan becomes a normal country, will America be able to control it? Will Japan need the United States anymore? Would the United States stay in East Asia? These are the questions that the United States will have to answer.
Quasi-state of Cold War to become normal
It is hard to determine if Japan will make a compromise with China. It is not likely to change its attitude until China becomes as strong as the United States. The main character of Japanese society is that the people are obedient and dutiful to the government.
On the part of the United States, its attitude towards China – regarding China as a rival and potential enemy – will generally remain unchanged for a considerable period of time. Neither will it give up its support for Japan since a powerful Japan under its control will do U. S. good.
For China, a big open war is hard to imagine. China's supreme national interest is still modernization. Once a war breaks out, neither of the two sides (plus the American factor) is sure to win. But China will have sufficient capacity to avoid and prevent Japan from interrupting its modernization process, and it won't choose to launch a war that may suspend the process.
With economic globalization, China and Japan will continue to open up to the outside world, and will not completely shut the door on each other either. Trade and people-to-people exchanges will go on.
With the change in domestic political environments, China and Japan will seek opportunities to improve the bilateral relationship. But based on recent trends, relations will likely evolve into a "quasi-state of Cold War." In some senses, this isn't a bad thing – it is better than an outright Cold War, and much better than a hot war.
The author is a professor and director at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore.
This article was translated by Li Jingrong. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)