Looking forward to the next decade, Sino-US relations will face more challenges. In addition to the three main chronicle problems regarding Taiwan, Tibet and trade (3T), there will be eight new ones (8N). Firstly, competition for leadership in the Asia-Pacific. China is the largest trading partner of 18 of its neighboring countries. Although China has no intention to drive the United States out of Asia, the two may come into actual competition for influence in the region. Second, a narrowing gap between Chinese and US militaries. Military and high technologies are “hard pillars” of US hegemony. Currently, Chinese military capabilities have been rapidly rising with the support of a strong industrial basis. The United States has an increasing sense of urgency about this. Third, competition in cyberspace as a game of major powers has increasingly become an important aspect of Sino-US relations. Fourth, as industrial upgrading speeds up in China, and internationalization of the Renminbi accelerates, the mutual complementariness of bilateral trade is on decline, and competition is intensifying. Fifth, China is going to the sea. In American eyes, the United States is a marine power, while China is a continental one. China’s turning to the oceans is seen as a challenge to US maritime power. Sixth, Chinese society is becoming increasingly pluralist. It is more difficult than in the past to reach a consensus on policy-making regarding the United States. Seventh, although China does not use the “Chinese model” to summarize its path of development, western media are increasingly adopting the expression. Once the “Chinese model” becomes a consensus in American decision-makers, a new ideological rivalry may become a part of Sino-US relations. Eighth, the sense of US insecurity is on the rise. Such a sense of insecurity derives not only from worries about the rise of China, but also from its declining self-confidence. The outbreak of the financial crisis and serious polarization of social wealth have brewed discontent in American society. The sense of insecurity makes it even more difficult to get along with the present-day United States.

Although Sino-US relations face the dual challenge of the absence of a strategic foundation and the entanglement of old and new problems, bilateral ties can still overcome the bottleneck and enter a brand-new era of a “new-type of major-power relationship” considering the following three conditions.

The first is about the subjects themselves. From the perspective of scale of the countries, both China and the United States are “gigantic countries”, none can defeat the other, so they have to find a way to co-exist. From the perspective of nature of the countries, both are “civilized countries”, instead of nation states in the usual sense, so they have the inclusiveness of big countries. From the perspective of the structure of power, both are countries in the “all-round champion” style with both hard and soft powers, their hard competition can be mitigated by soft power in various manners. From the perspective of the essence of social culture, the two have plenty in common: Social culture in both countries displays flexibility, and is pragmatic in nature, so they are good at mutually beneficial cooperation; secular forces are strong in both countries, which is conducive to social exchanges; both countries are self-confident and tolerant culturally, which helps in seeking common ground and preserving differences.

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