US will self-defeat if it considers China an enemy
- By Zheng Yongnian
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E-mail China.org.cn, May 2, 2014
As a second reason, any "return to Asia" means the United States will focus more on the region, which will in turn, and inevitably, lead to a huge waste. China will not be so "dim" as to fight the United States face to face; if it were, it would not have proposed a "new-type relationship between major powers." However, U.S. pressure may push China to make more efforts in its defensive and military modernization, which might actually lead to a rise of the Chinese military.
Thus far, China's development of its military has been stimulated by two external factors which both relate to the Untied States. One is the Gulf War in the early 1990s, and another the Taiwan Strait Crisis from 1995 to 1996. The former taught China what modern warfare looks like; the latter has made preventing Taiwan's independence the PLA's main task in recent years.
On a third note, any "return to Asia" will force the United States to transfer its strategic resources to the region, which could in turn accelerate the country's decline of power in other parts of the world. Actually, the U.S. impact and prestige in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia have already shrunk. Meanwhile, as China's diplomatic space in Asia has been narrowed down by the United States, it will extend its power in those regions from which the United States has withdrawn. To some extent, the "Marine Silk Road' and "Land Silk Road" could both be considered China's strategic considerations.
Finally then, what happened in Ukraine earlier this year marks the return of Russia's geopolitics. It also indicates that challenges facing those Western countries led by the U.S. do not stem from China, but from Russia. Historically, the United States and Russia are both expansionists because their cultures are based on religion with a strong sense of mission. In contrast, Chinese culture originated from secular culture which sees less expansion and more tolerance. The reaction of the United States and other Western nations to the Ukrainian issue in fact exposed their capacity limitations.
The U.S. strategic mistake on the China issue hails from its misunderstanding and misjudgment due to the deep-rooted American ideology. The United States firmly believes that a rising China would compete with the existing super powers. China's different political system -- from that of the United States -- reinforces any misinterpretations.
Although Western countries' theories of international relations are endemic, the United States would like to make them universal. Therefore, it is better to say the United States fears the rise of China, rather than that China poses a threat to the United States. So far, it holds no valid evidence to prove China is challenging the United States, but we can clearly detect the U.S. fear of China.
The decline of a great power to itself means more than the rise of any other country, just like the decline of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), as well as that of the Soviet Union. If the United States cannot adjust its strategic misjudgment towards China and halt its unlimited strategic greed, it will inevitably follow suit and head further and faster down the road towards decline.
The author is director of the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, and an expert on Chinese issues.
This article was translated by Lin Liyao. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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