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Europe's protest: rebalancing between the US and China

By Dan Steinbock: 0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, June 5, 2014

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People take part in a demonstration against the French far-right party Front National (FN) following the vote for the European elections, on May 29, 2014 in Strasbourg, eastern France. [Xinhua photo]

Multipolar Euroskeptic Union?

The protest Europe’s fascination with Russian President Putin is usually explained by autocratic inclinations. But the realities are more complex.

Marine Le Pen advocates a privileged partnership with Russia, which is necessitated by “obvious civilization and geostrategic factors” as well as “energy security interests.” She believes there is an ongoing process of demonization of Russia and Putin at Brussels and Washington, which are “trying to create a unipolar world.”

Le Pen’s foreign policy advisor Aymeric Chauprade, former lecturer at the Joint Defense College (who reportedly was sacked in a controversy about 9/11 conspiracy theories), supports French geopolitics and advocates a return to realpolitik. He supports a union of sovereign states and a policy of compromise with Russia within an “Eurasian alliance,” and the idea of a multipolar word, including a balanced relationship between China and the US.

Le Pen and Chauprade would like to severe French ties with Saudi Arabia, “America’s best ally” and support closer ties with Iran. They think that the US-Saudi alliance seeks to destroy moderate Arab regimes that are trying to modernize Islam. Like UKIP’s Lafarge, Le Pen often demanded Paris to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. She rejected efforts to involve France in the Libyan conflict and has denounced the “US supremacy” and Atlanticist interventions. Like Charles de Gaulle, she seeks independence toward US.

These ideas have triggered concern in Washington, which had hoped to complete the EU-US free trade agreement (FTA).

From China’s standpoint, the new approach toward multipolarity is reminiscent of Chirac’s ideas over a decade ago. Of course, the Euroskeptics also support protectionism in trade and investment, but they would also favor bilateral talks – which are Beijing’s preference as well.

“Less Europe” Brussels

Europe’s pent-up political protest has been fueled by severe social dislocations across Europe, particularly in Southern economies, and ill-advised obsession with austerity at the expense of inclusive growth policies.

Instead of “more Europe,” the new parties want to foster sovereign states and a looser federation. Most would be glad to receive more Chinese capital as long as it won’t interfere with their sovereignty and way of life.

After the May elections, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and social democrats (S&D) still dominate 54 percent of the seats, while the liberal-centrists (ALDE/ADLE) and the greens have barely 16 percent. While fringe moderates lost dramatically, the two large parties still have almost 70 percent of all seats.

European integration did not die, but took a heavy hit. In the process, the share of independents soared to almost 14 percent. Meanwhile, the left-green socialists, Euroskeptics (ECR) and far right anti-Federalists (EFD) beat the moderate fringe groups accounting for 17 percent of the vote.

With a turnout of just 43 percent, the election’s bottom line is clear. The political middle remains in majority, but its bargaining power has been squeezed. Moderate right and left may agree on further integration, but neither alone can achieve a simple majority.

In the coming months, the moderate middle hopes to coopt the protest parties, while the latter hope to tax the incumbents’ support. Of course, European decision-making should now be decisive, fast and consolidated. But that’s precisely what’s not going to happen. Instead, strong consensus may be replaced by fragmented sectarian struggles.

In the Obama White House, a Euroskeptic Union represents pretty much everything the Administration rejects. In Beijing, the Euroskeptics are seen as a force that could potentially contribute positively to a new balance of international power. But both wonder how far Europe’s protest will go.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is Research Director of International Business at India China and America Institute (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more see http://www.differencegroup.net

This article was first published at Chinausfocus.com To see the original version please visit http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/europes-protest-rebalancing-between-the-us-and-china/

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